Saturday, July 25, 2015

Luck

So this isn't a technical post or a hand review, just a few thoughts on luck. I remember hearing this in a cardrunners video and have been thinking about it for a few days. So I find that lots of good poker players have a horrible attitude about luck and expected value.

For example, we have AKo and we get in a flip against QJo. According to pokerstove we are a 65% favorite.

So we got it in good.

The problem is that people feel that AKo deserves to win this hand. So when they win, they think nothing of it because AKo is supposed to win - ignoring the fact that 35% of the time we lose this.
And this kind of thinking leads to disappointment when we lose 35% of the time.

Your AKo doesn't deserve anything. Random chance, pokerstars software, random number generators etc. don't (and can't) give a shit about the fact that you're a favorite - they just spit out a random flop, turn and river and you'll win on 65% of them and lose on 35%.

Yes, AKo is the 65% favorite, but 35% is still a lot, we will lose 1 in 3 times. We should still feel somewhat lucky when our AKo holds up - although not as lucky as when we have QJo and beat AKo.


No comments:

Post a Comment