http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6875225
Showing posts with label hand review. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hand review. Show all posts
Monday, August 3, 2015
HAND REVIEW: Weird spot with 99
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874977
So I don't remember anything about this hand, and I don't feel like looking through my DB for it again - I don't know the icm details, so this is purely a chipev calculation. No reads on anyone.
- utg raises 2x with 58bb.
- utg+1 3b shoves for 12bb.
Fold, Fold
We have 99 in the hijack, we have 64bb.
--------------
So this is a pretty nasty spot first of all. I think we made a mistake here. If utg wasn't involved and we were just calling utg+1's 12bb shove, I'd have no problem with this play. But if we give utg an 8% range (AJs+, AJo+, 66+) which I think is pretty reasonable, and utg+1 a 10% range (A8s+, ATo+, 55+, KQs), (these are default ranges from icmizer btw), then this is a losing play - we should be calling with TT+, AKs+.
Even if we widen the ranges to 9.5% for utg and 11% for utg+1, it is still a losing play according to icmizer.
---------------
Why is it a bad play?
- because vs. a narrow utg open, we aren't doing so well. We are flipping against ATs+, and AQo+, and we're dominated by any of his pocket pairs except for maybe 88.
- because he can still deny us the opportunity to realize our equity. I imagine we are folding if he shoves preflop, and he can certainly do this with his AXs.
----------------
A friend also pointed out that I can cbet less (30% of pot) here because of the small effective stacks behind, and fold to a shove. I haven't considered this option but it seems good. The second reason is because it is a protected pot (when one player is already all in). So as my friend put it, if he's bluffing with ace high, he probably won't even win the sidepot vs the shortie, so denying me my equity doesn't do much. "it makes it much less interesting to bluff you out of the pot, so you can make it really small"
So I don't remember anything about this hand, and I don't feel like looking through my DB for it again - I don't know the icm details, so this is purely a chipev calculation. No reads on anyone.
- utg raises 2x with 58bb.
- utg+1 3b shoves for 12bb.
Fold, Fold
We have 99 in the hijack, we have 64bb.
--------------
So this is a pretty nasty spot first of all. I think we made a mistake here. If utg wasn't involved and we were just calling utg+1's 12bb shove, I'd have no problem with this play. But if we give utg an 8% range (AJs+, AJo+, 66+) which I think is pretty reasonable, and utg+1 a 10% range (A8s+, ATo+, 55+, KQs), (these are default ranges from icmizer btw), then this is a losing play - we should be calling with TT+, AKs+.
Even if we widen the ranges to 9.5% for utg and 11% for utg+1, it is still a losing play according to icmizer.
---------------
Why is it a bad play?
- because vs. a narrow utg open, we aren't doing so well. We are flipping against ATs+, and AQo+, and we're dominated by any of his pocket pairs except for maybe 88.
- because he can still deny us the opportunity to realize our equity. I imagine we are folding if he shoves preflop, and he can certainly do this with his AXs.
----------------
A friend also pointed out that I can cbet less (30% of pot) here because of the small effective stacks behind, and fold to a shove. I haven't considered this option but it seems good. The second reason is because it is a protected pot (when one player is already all in). So as my friend put it, if he's bluffing with ace high, he probably won't even win the sidepot vs the shortie, so denying me my equity doesn't do much. "it makes it much less interesting to bluff you out of the pot, so you can make it really small"
HAND REVIEW: A9s utg raise w/ 11bb
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874951
So a recent leak of mine is trying to min-raise with sub-20bb stacks. It's arguable that it isn't a problem when you're 15-20bb deep, but I'm pretty sure it's just best to shove here. I don't have a big enough stack to play post flop effectively and I'm letting in worse hands to see the flop. Also I don't think this is a fold, we have 11bb and the blinds are coming in 1 hand. Icmizer says this is a shove fwiw.
It's pretty devastating to be min-raising A9s here, and it certainly cost us our tournament life here. If we get raised, do we fold? That would be pretty awful. If we get called, we're committed on the flop anyway.
So a recent leak of mine is trying to min-raise with sub-20bb stacks. It's arguable that it isn't a problem when you're 15-20bb deep, but I'm pretty sure it's just best to shove here. I don't have a big enough stack to play post flop effectively and I'm letting in worse hands to see the flop. Also I don't think this is a fold, we have 11bb and the blinds are coming in 1 hand. Icmizer says this is a shove fwiw.
It's pretty devastating to be min-raising A9s here, and it certainly cost us our tournament life here. If we get raised, do we fold? That would be pretty awful. If we get called, we're committed on the flop anyway.
Hand review: T6o in the CO
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874856
so villain is 16/11/4, defending vs 2bets in the bb 33% (4/12).
1) I'm not crazy about opening this wide in the CO.
2) Obviously there isn't supposed to be many 4's in his defending range. We need him to be shoving flush draws and possibly some pocket pairs (66-99) for our play to work. I don't think he's less likely to shove flush draws because of the paired board, and I highly doubt that somebody playing 16/11/4 is going to shove the flop with second pair (pocket pairs).
If he's not shoving flush draws and pocket pairs, he is only really shoving better 10s, and whatever 4s he defends.
Terribly played :)
so villain is 16/11/4, defending vs 2bets in the bb 33% (4/12).
1) I'm not crazy about opening this wide in the CO.
2) Obviously there isn't supposed to be many 4's in his defending range. We need him to be shoving flush draws and possibly some pocket pairs (66-99) for our play to work. I don't think he's less likely to shove flush draws because of the paired board, and I highly doubt that somebody playing 16/11/4 is going to shove the flop with second pair (pocket pairs).
If he's not shoving flush draws and pocket pairs, he is only really shoving better 10s, and whatever 4s he defends.
Terribly played :)
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
HAND REVIEW: QQ facing a 5bet shove
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6866591
- villain is playing 20/17/11 over 87 hands.
- we are 10 away from the money, (I'm 10/80, 70 get paid)
------
So at first I thought this hand was an unavoidable cooler, but I'm pretty sure it's a mistake now.
A friend's thoughts:
- by 4betting, we are folding out the hands in his range that we beat (AJ,AQ, JJ, TT) and we're committing ourselves against a 3% range. Keep in mind that there is 50bb effective.
Hands I think he might 3bet with:
99+, AJs+, AQo+
Hands he 5bet shoves:
QQ+, AKo+
I'm not even sure that he 5bet shoves AK for 50bb, but even against QQ+, AKo, we are 40%.
- also, 4bet folding here is obviously out of the question because we'd reduce our hand to 72o. We should've called the 3bet and kept his range wide postflop.
- villain is playing 20/17/11 over 87 hands.
- we are 10 away from the money, (I'm 10/80, 70 get paid)
------
So at first I thought this hand was an unavoidable cooler, but I'm pretty sure it's a mistake now.
A friend's thoughts:
- by 4betting, we are folding out the hands in his range that we beat (AJ,AQ, JJ, TT) and we're committing ourselves against a 3% range. Keep in mind that there is 50bb effective.
Hands I think he might 3bet with:
99+, AJs+, AQo+
Hands he 5bet shoves:
QQ+, AKo+
I'm not even sure that he 5bet shoves AK for 50bb, but even against QQ+, AKo, we are 40%.
- also, 4bet folding here is obviously out of the question because we'd reduce our hand to 72o. We should've called the 3bet and kept his range wide postflop.
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
HAND REVIEW: K9s in SB facing a UTG raise and 2 callers
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6859116
So I did not squeeze here simply because I didn't think I'd get enough folds (on ipoker at least.)
Also I have reverse implied odds against the utg raiser, and playing postflop out of position would be pretty difficult against 2 others. After discussing this hand with a few good regs, this is looking more like a fold. Perhaps we should only be playing something like A2s+, 89s+, 22+ in the SB this way.
So I did not squeeze here simply because I didn't think I'd get enough folds (on ipoker at least.)
Also I have reverse implied odds against the utg raiser, and playing postflop out of position would be pretty difficult against 2 others. After discussing this hand with a few good regs, this is looking more like a fold. Perhaps we should only be playing something like A2s+, 89s+, 22+ in the SB this way.
HAND REVIEW: 88s on the btn facing an sb raise and bb shove
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6859034
SB = 21/14/4 over 72 hands
BB = 18/14/7 over 3k hands
- So SB raising got me worried considering his 3bet stat is 4%. According to stove a 4% range is 99+, AQs+, AKo, and I think that is accurate for 3bets.
- the BB's 4bet really worried me though. His 4bet stat is 8%. He is a reg who most likely uses a hud - so he'd probably know that SB never 3bets. I didn't think I was ahead of either of their ranges to be honest.
Everyone I asked about this agreed that it's a fold.
SB = 21/14/4 over 72 hands
BB = 18/14/7 over 3k hands
- So SB raising got me worried considering his 3bet stat is 4%. According to stove a 4% range is 99+, AQs+, AKo, and I think that is accurate for 3bets.
- the BB's 4bet really worried me though. His 4bet stat is 8%. He is a reg who most likely uses a hud - so he'd probably know that SB never 3bets. I didn't think I was ahead of either of their ranges to be honest.
Everyone I asked about this agreed that it's a fold.
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
HAND REVIEW: 2xing utg w/ 10bb (mistake)
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6858126
This is definitely a mistake I've been doing too frequently recently. I've been experimenting with playing sub-20bb stacks, and this hand kind of illustrates the problem. By not shoving, we make mistakes by letting hands we are vulnerable to see the flop and essentially play perfectly against us. After we cbet the flop (which we should imo), we are priced in to call anyway. So they could continue on flops they hit well or just fold if they don't catch anything. If we could fold flop this play becomes good, which is obviously why we don't shove 25bb+ here.
This is definitely a mistake I've been doing too frequently recently. I've been experimenting with playing sub-20bb stacks, and this hand kind of illustrates the problem. By not shoving, we make mistakes by letting hands we are vulnerable to see the flop and essentially play perfectly against us. After we cbet the flop (which we should imo), we are priced in to call anyway. So they could continue on flops they hit well or just fold if they don't catch anything. If we could fold flop this play becomes good, which is obviously why we don't shove 25bb+ here.
HAND REVIEW: Weird 3bet
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6858114
So this hand happened near the bubble, and therefore I don't think it's a bad open. But after talking it over with a few people, it's probably a fold pre considering there are several shoving stacks behind me.
- However, I'm not so sure that people are shoving 15-20bb very much anymore. I might be wrong about that.
- They had nitty stats (fold to steal, pfr and vpip), so I expect to take it down preflop a lot.
- Near the bubble, so they're more likely to fold.
So this hand happened near the bubble, and therefore I don't think it's a bad open. But after talking it over with a few people, it's probably a fold pre considering there are several shoving stacks behind me.
- However, I'm not so sure that people are shoving 15-20bb very much anymore. I might be wrong about that.
- They had nitty stats (fold to steal, pfr and vpip), so I expect to take it down preflop a lot.
- Near the bubble, so they're more likely to fold.
Sunday, July 19, 2015
HAND REVIEW: BTN Preflop Shove w/ 10bb & no antes
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6849342
I'm not exactly sure on the range I should be shoving here with no antes. I don't think it's an atc shove.
Let's plug it into icmizer to see nash shoving ranges in this spot:
According to icmizer we should be shoving 45% of hands here, and Q8o does not fall in the shoving range. However, I firmly believe that sb/bb are calling tighter than nash. For the record sb is supposed to call 35%, and bb overcall 31%, or bb call 37% if sb folds.
At least at the games I play, nobody is going to call 35% or 31% to a button shove. However when I give them more reasonable calling ranges, like 16% for sb, it becomes an atc shove. Even if we give them all 20% calling ranges, it is an atc shove.
I'm not exactly sure on the range I should be shoving here with no antes. I don't think it's an atc shove.
Let's plug it into icmizer to see nash shoving ranges in this spot:
According to icmizer we should be shoving 45% of hands here, and Q8o does not fall in the shoving range. However, I firmly believe that sb/bb are calling tighter than nash. For the record sb is supposed to call 35%, and bb overcall 31%, or bb call 37% if sb folds.
At least at the games I play, nobody is going to call 35% or 31% to a button shove. However when I give them more reasonable calling ranges, like 16% for sb, it becomes an atc shove. Even if we give them all 20% calling ranges, it is an atc shove.
Friday, July 17, 2015
HAND REVIEW: BTN shove with 6bb [ T7o ]
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6847472
Icmizer says this is a bad shove (-17.0). However, I don't think it's bad considering people aren't calling wide enough (well under nash ranges).
It might actually be +ev if we adjust their ranges and not use nash - still a marginal spot though, and I'm not sure how I feel about it.
Icmizer says this is a bad shove (-17.0). However, I don't think it's bad considering people aren't calling wide enough (well under nash ranges).
It might actually be +ev if we adjust their ranges and not use nash - still a marginal spot though, and I'm not sure how I feel about it.
HAND REVIEW: Reshove with 88
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6847467
This one is definitely a mistake. The problem is that the caller basically commits a third of his stack, so he's obviously not going to fold to my shove. I've talked to several other players about this hand, and the consensus is that he is doing this with an extremely strong range. He would reshove AJ+, as well as pocket pairs 66-10s approximately. I've personally never seen anyone show up here with AK even, I'm not sure I'm ever flipping, and he's definitely not doing this with 77 or lower so I'm never ahead. His range here seems to be JJ+ or QQ+
This one is definitely a mistake. The problem is that the caller basically commits a third of his stack, so he's obviously not going to fold to my shove. I've talked to several other players about this hand, and the consensus is that he is doing this with an extremely strong range. He would reshove AJ+, as well as pocket pairs 66-10s approximately. I've personally never seen anyone show up here with AK even, I'm not sure I'm ever flipping, and he's definitely not doing this with 77 or lower so I'm never ahead. His range here seems to be JJ+ or QQ+
Thursday, July 16, 2015
Hand review: mistake with 66?
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6846940
Really I have no idea why I value bet the river.
1) I was never going to get called by worse (ie. K5?)
2) Do I get better hands to fold? I suppose a 7 might fold, any 8 is unlikely to fold because of the A-A runout. Still way to thin to bet the river I think. Obviously I didn't expect him to limp 99 preflop though.
Really I have no idea why I value bet the river.
1) I was never going to get called by worse (ie. K5?)
2) Do I get better hands to fold? I suppose a 7 might fold, any 8 is unlikely to fold because of the A-A runout. Still way to thin to bet the river I think. Obviously I didn't expect him to limp 99 preflop though.
HAND REVIEW: Strange River Raise
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6846935
Never expected him to be raising the river with A9, or even AK. He's playing 77/19/13, which is why I went for 3 streets of value. However I figured it's a bet-fold on the river. Thoughts?
Never expected him to be raising the river with A9, or even AK. He's playing 77/19/13, which is why I went for 3 streets of value. However I figured it's a bet-fold on the river. Thoughts?
ICMizer review of Daniel Negreanu's bust out hand
http://www.icmpoker.com/en/video/daniel-negreanu-bust-hand-wsop-2015-me-mistake/
HAND REVIEW: SB shove with 44 over a raise and call in LP
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6846923
Opener is playing 18/15/9 over 2k hands, but has been spewing chips at this table.
I figured that I'd be flipping a lot of the time as one of them would probably fold. Icmizer says this is actually a fold.
Opener is playing 18/15/9 over 2k hands, but has been spewing chips at this table.
I figured that I'd be flipping a lot of the time as one of them would probably fold. Icmizer says this is actually a fold.
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
HAND REVIEW: 3bet shove with 77
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6842042
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6842042 his stats are 17/16/7 over 81 hands
[3:08:07 PM] adrian c: im not 100% sure what to do in these spots, is this a fold?
[3:09:15 PM] Geraldo22: its close
[3:09:26 PM] Geraldo22: in a soft tourney u could maybe look for a better spot
[3:09:35 PM] Geraldo22: is2.5x his std open size?
[3:09:48 PM] Geraldo22: I feel like a lot of the fish go bigger when they have the goods
[3:10:03 PM] adrian c: i feel that too, but i have no idea
[3:10:11 PM] adrian c: i dont know if thats his standard open
[3:10:15 PM] Geraldo22: that being said if u run it thru hrc im sure itd say its def a jam
[3:12:34 PM] Jeroen Aarts: i agree with you geraldo
[3:12:48 PM] Jeroen Aarts: in a soft tourney i dont mind a fold pre
[3:12:57 PM] Jeroen Aarts: because all other options suck
[3:13:17 PM] Jeroen Aarts: 2.5ex i would give respect too
[3:13:43 PM] adrian c: does nobody open raise 2.5x as a standard anymore?
[3:13:47 PM] Jeroen Aarts: imo ill prolly go fo
fold > reshove allin > 3b/c > 3b/f > flat
[3:14:09 PM] Jeroen Aarts: not that much anymore :)
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6842042 his stats are 17/16/7 over 81 hands
[3:08:07 PM] adrian c: im not 100% sure what to do in these spots, is this a fold?
[3:09:15 PM] Geraldo22: its close
[3:09:26 PM] Geraldo22: in a soft tourney u could maybe look for a better spot
[3:09:35 PM] Geraldo22: is2.5x his std open size?
[3:09:48 PM] Geraldo22: I feel like a lot of the fish go bigger when they have the goods
[3:10:03 PM] adrian c: i feel that too, but i have no idea
[3:10:11 PM] adrian c: i dont know if thats his standard open
[3:10:15 PM] Geraldo22: that being said if u run it thru hrc im sure itd say its def a jam
[3:12:34 PM] Jeroen Aarts: i agree with you geraldo
[3:12:48 PM] Jeroen Aarts: in a soft tourney i dont mind a fold pre
[3:12:57 PM] Jeroen Aarts: because all other options suck
[3:13:17 PM] Jeroen Aarts: 2.5ex i would give respect too
[3:13:43 PM] adrian c: does nobody open raise 2.5x as a standard anymore?
[3:13:47 PM] Jeroen Aarts: imo ill prolly go fo
fold > reshove allin > 3b/c > 3b/f > flat
[3:14:09 PM] Jeroen Aarts: not that much anymore :)
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