Thursday, July 30, 2015

Breaking down a person's range

Thought this might be a neat little exercise after talking with a friend. I think it would be good to break down a person's range for practice because we'll be able to range other players better in the future. Also it'll show how all the stats are connected, maybe we'll be able to estimate some stats based on others.

We're going to be looking at vpip, pfr, 3bet, fold to 3bet, call pf 2bet and 4bet:


player3: (3079 hands)
VPIP: 24.23
PFR: 17.11
3BET: 8.85
FOLD TO 3BET: 72.40
CALL PF 2BET: 15.06
4BET: 10.45

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So obviously this player has a pretty wide gap between vpip and pfr. What does it consist of?

We have 3079 hands on him.

- he voluntarily put money in the pot 736/3079 = 24%
- he raised first in 360/3079 = 12%




- he 3bet 93/1051 = 9% (1051 is his 3bet opportunities)

VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+


vpip = 0.53(0.13) + 0.48(5.91) + 0.48(24.75) + 0.39(15.29) + 0.06(16.76) + 0.02(66)
=         0.0689       + 2.8368      + 11.88           +  5.96            + 1.00             + 1.32

= ~23

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lets try it for another player:

VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+

= 4.10 + 15.69 + 24.67 + 8.85 + 10.45 + 0

DO THIS TOMORROW
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thoughts:

So I think using vpip/pfr/3bet as stats is bad. First of all, vpip is way too general. PFR is stupid because it includes raise first in, 3bet, 4bet, etc., and vpip obviously includes all of those as well. 

We should be using:
- raise first in
- 3bet
- call any preflop 2b?
- call any pfr? (im thinking this one is bad too because its based on pfr)
    - find a stat to show how often people are calling raises



- vpip pfr gap doesn't mean as much as it used to because of wider defending











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