Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Hand Review: KK Postflop
[b][3/436][/b]
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PokerStars Game 139895652701 / Tournament
Table 1303714055 26 -
Blinds : [b][color=darkred]10/20[/color][/b]
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9 players
[b][SB] [/b]jcmspoker (5970)
[b][BB] [/b]kartrid (6030)
[1] BaaadNews (3150)
[2] [b]Fabaz (9000) [/b]
[3] xPoisonUAx (2942)
[4] Todd12345 (6091)
[5] KAMSHULER (3086)
[6] dorschcharli (8902)
[b][But] [/b]Brownwingsx3 (9046)
Fabaz K:diamond: K:club: [b]Initial Pot: 30
[/b]
BaaadNews calls 20
Fabaz raises to 100
[i]xPoisonUAx folds[/i]
[i]Todd12345 folds[/i]
[i]KAMSHULER folds[/i]
dorschcharli calls 100
Brownwingsx3 calls 100
[i]jcmspoker folds[/i]
[i]kartrid folds[/i]
BaaadNews calls 80
### FLOP ### 3:diamond: J:spade: 7:heart: [b]Pot: 430[/b]
BaaadNews checks
Fabaz bets 260
[i]dorschcharli folds[/i]
Brownwingsx3 calls 260
BaaadNews calls 260
### TURN ### 2:diamond: [b]Pot: 1210[/b]
BaaadNews checks
Fabaz bets 740
Brownwingsx3 calls 740
BaaadNews raises to 1560
Fabaz raises to 2380
[i]Brownwingsx3 folds[/i]
BaaadNews is All in
Fabaz calls 410
### RIVER ### 3:club: [b]Pot: 7530[/b]
BaaadNews shows 7:diamond: 7:spade:
Fabaz shows K:diamond: K:club:
[color=violet][b]BaaadNews[/b][/color] wins 7530 from the main pot with A Full House, sevens full of treys
[color=violet][b]BaaadNews[/b][/color] wins 7530 from the main pot with A Full House, sevens full of treys
----
Sorry for the formatting, it's from Universal Hand Replayer. So I actually think this is a fold on the turn. There just isn't a single hand we can beat. BaaadNews checkraised a blank 2 into two people who are at least somewhat committed to the pot, he is definitely not doing this with AJ (not that he'd play AJ like this anyway). He wouldn't play QQ like this either.
Update
Haven't updated the blog in a while, but I've been putting in volume and studying a lot. Currently I'm trying to look for changes and trends in player pools month by month. Things I want to look at:
vpip, pfr, 3b, limp, limp fold, cbet f, cbet t, fold to cbet, fold to cbet 3way pot, cbet flop success, fold to 3bet, wtsd.
Really it would be useful to look at all meaningful stats and adjust accordingly.
More to come.
vpip, pfr, 3b, limp, limp fold, cbet f, cbet t, fold to cbet, fold to cbet 3way pot, cbet flop success, fold to 3bet, wtsd.
Really it would be useful to look at all meaningful stats and adjust accordingly.
More to come.
Friday, August 14, 2015
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6909319
Points to this hand:
- Ace on the river obviously makes it less likely that he has an ace in his hand.
Points I neglected:
- Although the ace on the river does reduce the chance of him having an ace, the fact that I have the Kd reduces the chance that he's on a draw.
Where to Improve:
- check back the flop, as well as with AK:
- if he raises us and we get it all-in on the flop, we're not doing so great against his range. His range would be strong combo draws, two pairs, sets and QJ for the straight.
- we aren't afraid of any turn cards.
---
So I decided to go over this hand in flopzilla and illustrate the points above:
let's give him a range of 88+, AQo+, KQo, AJs+, KQs (5.18%)
Obviously he's probably usually 4betting AA, KK and probably QQ preflop, but let's just try this range for now.
Against that range, on a Ah Jd Td flop:
- 61% equity for range
- 38% equity for hand
1) Obviously we don't want to get it all in on the flop given that we are 38% against his range.
---
With flopzilla, we can also see which turn cards improve the range, and which improve our hand:
- A/K are basically a tie, two kings are obviously blocked, and presumably some aces because of his range. A Queen is ~70% for our range. Jacks and tens are ~60% for his range. 9s and 8s are especially good for his range (73%). 7s all the way down to 2s around 67% for his range. Basically the takeaway is that most cards don't change the equity much other than 8s and 9s which are good for his range (if we include 88/99 in his preflop raise/call range, and Queens which are good for my hand.
2) Obviously there aren't many turn cards we are afraid of. The vast majority of turn cards don't change the equity drastically from the flop to the turn.
3) He doesn't have many draws in his range because we have the Kd. (Kinda)
- He'll actually have gutshots 44% of the time. (QQ, KK, AQ, AK)
- But if we change our card from the Kd to the Ks, he has flushdraws 5% of the time compared to 1.8%.
Points to this hand:
- Ace on the river obviously makes it less likely that he has an ace in his hand.
Points I neglected:
- Although the ace on the river does reduce the chance of him having an ace, the fact that I have the Kd reduces the chance that he's on a draw.
Where to Improve:
- check back the flop, as well as with AK:
- if he raises us and we get it all-in on the flop, we're not doing so great against his range. His range would be strong combo draws, two pairs, sets and QJ for the straight.
- we aren't afraid of any turn cards.
---
So I decided to go over this hand in flopzilla and illustrate the points above:
let's give him a range of 88+, AQo+, KQo, AJs+, KQs (5.18%)
Obviously he's probably usually 4betting AA, KK and probably QQ preflop, but let's just try this range for now.
Against that range, on a Ah Jd Td flop:
- 61% equity for range
- 38% equity for hand
1) Obviously we don't want to get it all in on the flop given that we are 38% against his range.
---
With flopzilla, we can also see which turn cards improve the range, and which improve our hand:
- A/K are basically a tie, two kings are obviously blocked, and presumably some aces because of his range. A Queen is ~70% for our range. Jacks and tens are ~60% for his range. 9s and 8s are especially good for his range (73%). 7s all the way down to 2s around 67% for his range. Basically the takeaway is that most cards don't change the equity much other than 8s and 9s which are good for his range (if we include 88/99 in his preflop raise/call range, and Queens which are good for my hand.
2) Obviously there aren't many turn cards we are afraid of. The vast majority of turn cards don't change the equity drastically from the flop to the turn.
3) He doesn't have many draws in his range because we have the Kd. (Kinda)
- He'll actually have gutshots 44% of the time. (QQ, KK, AQ, AK)
- But if we change our card from the Kd to the Ks, he has flushdraws 5% of the time compared to 1.8%.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
Update
I haven't posted an update in a while since I've been grinding. The grind has been pretty tough but I'm not completely satisfied with my play either. Luckily I've got a tonne of hand reviews to do and a lot of learning material.
Some concepts I've yet to implement:
- not 3betting with the nuts always. As a few of my friends told me, I should flat KK/AA in some spots if I have shoving stacks behind me left to act.
- I still cbet way too much. Upcoming hand review will exemplify this.
Some concepts I've yet to implement:
- not 3betting with the nuts always. As a few of my friends told me, I should flat KK/AA in some spots if I have shoving stacks behind me left to act.
- I still cbet way too much. Upcoming hand review will exemplify this.
Thursday, August 6, 2015
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
HAND REVIEW: QKs in SB vs. a UTG raise [40bb eff.]
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6879606
Monday, August 3, 2015
HAND REVIEW: Weird spot with 99
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874977
So I don't remember anything about this hand, and I don't feel like looking through my DB for it again - I don't know the icm details, so this is purely a chipev calculation. No reads on anyone.
- utg raises 2x with 58bb.
- utg+1 3b shoves for 12bb.
Fold, Fold
We have 99 in the hijack, we have 64bb.
--------------
So this is a pretty nasty spot first of all. I think we made a mistake here. If utg wasn't involved and we were just calling utg+1's 12bb shove, I'd have no problem with this play. But if we give utg an 8% range (AJs+, AJo+, 66+) which I think is pretty reasonable, and utg+1 a 10% range (A8s+, ATo+, 55+, KQs), (these are default ranges from icmizer btw), then this is a losing play - we should be calling with TT+, AKs+.
Even if we widen the ranges to 9.5% for utg and 11% for utg+1, it is still a losing play according to icmizer.
---------------
Why is it a bad play?
- because vs. a narrow utg open, we aren't doing so well. We are flipping against ATs+, and AQo+, and we're dominated by any of his pocket pairs except for maybe 88.
- because he can still deny us the opportunity to realize our equity. I imagine we are folding if he shoves preflop, and he can certainly do this with his AXs.
----------------
A friend also pointed out that I can cbet less (30% of pot) here because of the small effective stacks behind, and fold to a shove. I haven't considered this option but it seems good. The second reason is because it is a protected pot (when one player is already all in). So as my friend put it, if he's bluffing with ace high, he probably won't even win the sidepot vs the shortie, so denying me my equity doesn't do much. "it makes it much less interesting to bluff you out of the pot, so you can make it really small"
So I don't remember anything about this hand, and I don't feel like looking through my DB for it again - I don't know the icm details, so this is purely a chipev calculation. No reads on anyone.
- utg raises 2x with 58bb.
- utg+1 3b shoves for 12bb.
Fold, Fold
We have 99 in the hijack, we have 64bb.
--------------
So this is a pretty nasty spot first of all. I think we made a mistake here. If utg wasn't involved and we were just calling utg+1's 12bb shove, I'd have no problem with this play. But if we give utg an 8% range (AJs+, AJo+, 66+) which I think is pretty reasonable, and utg+1 a 10% range (A8s+, ATo+, 55+, KQs), (these are default ranges from icmizer btw), then this is a losing play - we should be calling with TT+, AKs+.
Even if we widen the ranges to 9.5% for utg and 11% for utg+1, it is still a losing play according to icmizer.
---------------
Why is it a bad play?
- because vs. a narrow utg open, we aren't doing so well. We are flipping against ATs+, and AQo+, and we're dominated by any of his pocket pairs except for maybe 88.
- because he can still deny us the opportunity to realize our equity. I imagine we are folding if he shoves preflop, and he can certainly do this with his AXs.
----------------
A friend also pointed out that I can cbet less (30% of pot) here because of the small effective stacks behind, and fold to a shove. I haven't considered this option but it seems good. The second reason is because it is a protected pot (when one player is already all in). So as my friend put it, if he's bluffing with ace high, he probably won't even win the sidepot vs the shortie, so denying me my equity doesn't do much. "it makes it much less interesting to bluff you out of the pot, so you can make it really small"
HAND REVIEW: A9s utg raise w/ 11bb
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874951
So a recent leak of mine is trying to min-raise with sub-20bb stacks. It's arguable that it isn't a problem when you're 15-20bb deep, but I'm pretty sure it's just best to shove here. I don't have a big enough stack to play post flop effectively and I'm letting in worse hands to see the flop. Also I don't think this is a fold, we have 11bb and the blinds are coming in 1 hand. Icmizer says this is a shove fwiw.
It's pretty devastating to be min-raising A9s here, and it certainly cost us our tournament life here. If we get raised, do we fold? That would be pretty awful. If we get called, we're committed on the flop anyway.
So a recent leak of mine is trying to min-raise with sub-20bb stacks. It's arguable that it isn't a problem when you're 15-20bb deep, but I'm pretty sure it's just best to shove here. I don't have a big enough stack to play post flop effectively and I'm letting in worse hands to see the flop. Also I don't think this is a fold, we have 11bb and the blinds are coming in 1 hand. Icmizer says this is a shove fwiw.
It's pretty devastating to be min-raising A9s here, and it certainly cost us our tournament life here. If we get raised, do we fold? That would be pretty awful. If we get called, we're committed on the flop anyway.
Hand review: T6o in the CO
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874856
so villain is 16/11/4, defending vs 2bets in the bb 33% (4/12).
1) I'm not crazy about opening this wide in the CO.
2) Obviously there isn't supposed to be many 4's in his defending range. We need him to be shoving flush draws and possibly some pocket pairs (66-99) for our play to work. I don't think he's less likely to shove flush draws because of the paired board, and I highly doubt that somebody playing 16/11/4 is going to shove the flop with second pair (pocket pairs).
If he's not shoving flush draws and pocket pairs, he is only really shoving better 10s, and whatever 4s he defends.
Terribly played :)
so villain is 16/11/4, defending vs 2bets in the bb 33% (4/12).
1) I'm not crazy about opening this wide in the CO.
2) Obviously there isn't supposed to be many 4's in his defending range. We need him to be shoving flush draws and possibly some pocket pairs (66-99) for our play to work. I don't think he's less likely to shove flush draws because of the paired board, and I highly doubt that somebody playing 16/11/4 is going to shove the flop with second pair (pocket pairs).
If he's not shoving flush draws and pocket pairs, he is only really shoving better 10s, and whatever 4s he defends.
Terribly played :)
Saturday, August 1, 2015
**** ADD 3B NOTE TO PT4 ****
NP (1450) [18/17/8]
VP: 18
R1: 25
3B: 8
CB: 77
CBT: 57
FCB: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
F3B: 75
FSTL: 65
CL2: 4
LI: 0
LF:-
D: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
XX(11K) [16/11/4]
VP:16
R1:18
3B: 4
CB:47
CBT: 33
FCB: 56
F3B: 75
FSTL: 83
CL2: 9
LI: 3
LF: 61
D: 4
- DOES R1 INCLUDE LIMPERS BEFORE?
CAC (3.1K) [20/17/7]
VP: 20
R1: 26
3B: 7
CB: 61
CBT: 49
FCB: 61
F3B: 76
FSTL: 73
CL2:7
LI:2
LF:80
D: 4
* ADD 4B TO HUD
OM
VP:24
R1: 25
3B: 9
CB: 67
CBT: 46
FCB:49
F3B:72
FSTL: 54
CL2: 15
LI: 4
LF: 37
D: 28
NP (1450) [18/17/8]
VP: 18
R1: 25
3B: 8
CB: 77
CBT: 57
FCB: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
F3B: 75
FSTL: 65
CL2: 4
LI: 0
LF:-
D: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
XX(11K) [16/11/4]
VP:16
R1:18
3B: 4
CB:47
CBT: 33
FCB: 56
F3B: 75
FSTL: 83
CL2: 9
LI: 3
LF: 61
D: 4
- DOES R1 INCLUDE LIMPERS BEFORE?
CAC (3.1K) [20/17/7]
VP: 20
R1: 26
3B: 7
CB: 61
CBT: 49
FCB: 61
F3B: 76
FSTL: 73
CL2:7
LI:2
LF:80
D: 4
* ADD 4B TO HUD
OM
VP:24
R1: 25
3B: 9
CB: 67
CBT: 46
FCB:49
F3B:72
FSTL: 54
CL2: 15
LI: 4
LF: 37
D: 28
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