4BET GAP!!!

Breaking down a person's range

Thought this might be a neat little exercise after talking with a friend. I think it would be good to break down a person's range for practice because we'll be able to range other players better in the future. Also it'll show how all the stats are connected, maybe we'll be able to estimate some stats based on others.

We're going to be looking at vpip, pfr, 3bet, fold to 3bet, call pf 2bet and 4bet:


player3: (3079 hands)
VPIP: 24.23
PFR: 17.11
3BET: 8.85
FOLD TO 3BET: 72.40
CALL PF 2BET: 15.06
4BET: 10.45

-----


So obviously this player has a pretty wide gap between vpip and pfr. What does it consist of?

We have 3079 hands on him.

- he voluntarily put money in the pot 736/3079 = 24%
- he raised first in 360/3079 = 12%
- 



- he 3bet 93/1051 = 9% (1051 is his 3bet opportunities)

VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+


vpip = 0.53(0.13) + 0.48(5.91) + 0.48(24.75) + 0.39(15.29) + 0.06(16.76) + 0.02(66)
=         0.0689       + 2.8368      + 11.88           +  5.96            + 1.00             + 1.32

= ~23

-----

lets try it for another player:

VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+

= 4.10 + 15.69 + 24.67 + 8.85 + 10.45 + 0

DO THIS TOMORROW
------------


thoughts:

So I think using vpip/pfr/3bet as stats is bad. First of all, vpip is way too general. PFR is stupid because it includes raise first in, 3bet, 4bet, etc., and vpip obviously includes all of those as well. 

We should be using:
- raise first in
- 3bet
- call any preflop 2b?
- call any pfr? (im thinking this one is bad too because its based on pfr)
    - find a stat to show how often people are calling raises



- vpip pfr gap doesn't mean as much as it used to because of wider defending

HAND REVIEW: QQ facing a 5bet shove

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6866591

- villain is playing 20/17/11 over 87 hands.
- we are 10 away from the money, (I'm 10/80, 70 get paid)

------
So at first I thought this hand was an unavoidable cooler, but I'm pretty sure it's a mistake now.
A friend's thoughts:

- by 4betting, we are folding out the hands in his range that we beat (AJ,AQ, JJ, TT) and we're committing ourselves against a 3% range. Keep in mind that there is 50bb effective.

Hands I think he might 3bet with:
99+, AJs+, AQo+

Hands he 5bet shoves:
QQ+, AKo+

I'm not even sure that he 5bet shoves AK for 50bb, but even against QQ+, AKo, we are 40%.

- also, 4bet folding here is obviously out of the question because we'd reduce our hand to 72o. We should've called the 3bet and kept his range wide postflop.

reminder: test out cbet filters

- gutshot/open ended - make sure that they only have a gutshot, not gutshot + middle pair etc.

Luck

So this isn't a technical post or a hand review, just a few thoughts on luck. I remember hearing this in a cardrunners video and have been thinking about it for a few days. So I find that lots of good poker players have a horrible attitude about luck and expected value.

For example, we have AKo and we get in a flip against QJo. According to pokerstove we are a 65% favorite.

So we got it in good.

The problem is that people feel that AKo deserves to win this hand. So when they win, they think nothing of it because AKo is supposed to win - ignoring the fact that 35% of the time we lose this.
And this kind of thinking leads to disappointment when we lose 35% of the time.

Your AKo doesn't deserve anything. Random chance, pokerstars software, random number generators etc. don't (and can't) give a shit about the fact that you're a favorite - they just spit out a random flop, turn and river and you'll win on 65% of them and lose on 35%.

Yes, AKo is the 65% favorite, but 35% is still a lot, we will lose 1 in 3 times. We should still feel somewhat lucky when our AKo holds up - although not as lucky as when we have QJo and beat AKo.

VIDEO NOTES: Assassinato - Sunday Major Part 1

iPoker Hall of Fame Play

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6859275

HAND REVIEW: K9s in SB facing a UTG raise and 2 callers

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6859116

So I did not squeeze here simply because I didn't think I'd get enough folds (on ipoker at least.)
Also I have reverse implied odds against the utg raiser, and playing postflop out of position would be pretty difficult against 2 others. After discussing this hand with a few good regs, this is looking more like a fold. Perhaps we should only be playing something like A2s+, 89s+, 22+ in the SB this way.

HAND REVIEW: 88s on the btn facing an sb raise and bb shove

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6859034

SB = 21/14/4 over 72 hands
BB =  18/14/7 over 3k hands

- So SB raising got me worried considering his 3bet stat is 4%. According to stove a 4% range is 99+, AQs+, AKo, and I think that is accurate for 3bets.

- the BB's 4bet really worried me though. His 4bet stat is 8%. He is a reg who most likely uses a hud - so he'd probably know that SB never 3bets. I didn't think I was ahead of either of their ranges to be honest.

Everyone I asked about this agreed that it's a fold. 

HAND REVIEW: 2xing utg w/ 10bb (mistake)

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6858126

This is definitely a mistake I've been doing too frequently recently. I've been experimenting with playing sub-20bb stacks, and this hand kind of illustrates the problem. By not shoving, we make mistakes by letting hands we are vulnerable to see the flop and essentially play perfectly against us. After we cbet the flop (which we should imo), we are priced in to call anyway. So they could continue on flops they hit well or just fold if they don't catch anything. If we could fold flop this play becomes good, which is obviously why we don't shove 25bb+ here.

iPoker hall of fame #2

http://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-Statistics//networks/iPoker/players/LadyMC?filter=Entrants:30~*

HAND REVIEW: Weird 3bet

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6858114

So this hand happened near the bubble, and therefore I don't think it's a bad open. But after talking it over with a few people, it's probably a fold pre considering there are several shoving stacks behind me.

- However, I'm not so sure that people are shoving 15-20bb very much anymore. I might be wrong about that.

- They had nitty stats (fold to steal, pfr and vpip), so I expect to take it down preflop a lot.
- Near the bubble, so they're more likely to fold.

Reminder: Defending

Find new videos on defending

Imo the variables would be position of raiser and his range based on stats, your hand (suited connectors in some situations, pairs in another situation, etc.), stack size, bet size (3x seems really strong these days).

- basically if he has a nutted range, defend wider with 98s type hands, and pocket pairs
- however pocket pairs lose value against wider/weaker ranges ie. btn raises. I don't think defending pocket pairs is good in the blinds. (look it up on pt4 tmw)

- look into f3b stat.

iPoker Hall of fame #1

http://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-Statistics//networks/iPoker/players/abpat?filter=Entrants:30~*

 Playing a solid 53/31/22 obviously

HAND REVIEW: AJs facing a shove and call

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6852747

HAND REVIEW: BTN Preflop Shove w/ 10bb & no antes

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6849342

I'm not exactly sure on the range I should be shoving here with no antes. I don't think it's an atc shove.

Let's plug it into icmizer to see nash shoving ranges in this spot:


According to icmizer we should be shoving 45% of hands here, and Q8o does not fall in the shoving range. However, I firmly believe that sb/bb are calling tighter than nash. For the record sb is supposed to call 35%, and bb overcall 31%, or bb call 37% if sb folds.

At least at the games I play, nobody is going to call 35% or 31% to a button shove. However when I give them more reasonable calling ranges, like 16% for sb, it becomes an atc shove. Even if we give them all 20% calling ranges, it is an atc shove.

REMINDER: test out NoteTracker filters

Jennifear's Push/Fold charts

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiRCAFDKL6fIdHE0QWt5elZMUkU4YzVrSlBVZk5EMFE#gid=0

HAND REVIEW: BTN shove with 6bb [ T7o ]

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6847472

Icmizer says this is a bad shove (-17.0). However, I don't think it's bad considering people aren't calling wide enough (well under nash ranges).

It might actually be +ev if we adjust their ranges and not use nash - still a marginal spot though, and I'm not sure how I feel about it.

HAND REVIEW: Reshove with 88

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6847467

This one is definitely a mistake.  The problem is that the caller basically commits a third of his stack, so he's obviously not going to fold to my shove. I've talked to several other players about this hand, and the consensus is that he is doing this with an extremely strong range. He would reshove AJ+, as well as pocket pairs 66-10s approximately. I've personally never seen anyone show up here with AK even, I'm not sure I'm ever flipping, and he's definitely not doing this with 77 or lower so I'm never ahead. His range here seems to be JJ+ or QQ+

http://www.cardrunners.com/poker-videos/replayer-sunday-major-final-table-part-2-assassinato/

REMINDER TO WATCH http://www.cardrunners.com/poker-videos/replayer-sunday-major-final-table-part-2-assassinato/

Hand review: mistake with 66?

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6846940

Really I have no idea why I value bet the river.
1) I was never going to get called by worse (ie. K5?)
2) Do I get better hands to fold? I suppose a 7 might fold, any 8 is unlikely to fold because of the A-A runout. Still way to thin to bet the river I think. Obviously I didn't expect him to limp 99 preflop though.

HAND REVIEW: Strange River Raise

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6846935

Never expected him to be raising the river with A9, or even AK.  He's playing 77/19/13, which is why I went for 3 streets of value. However I figured it's a bet-fold on the river. Thoughts?

ICMizer review of Daniel Negreanu's bust out hand

http://www.icmpoker.com/en/video/daniel-negreanu-bust-hand-wsop-2015-me-mistake/

HAND REVIEW: SB shove with 44 over a raise and call in LP

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6846923

Opener is playing 18/15/9 over 2k hands, but has been spewing chips at this table.

I figured that I'd be flipping a lot of the time as one of them would probably fold. Icmizer says this is actually a fold.

HAND REVIEW: 3bet shove with 77

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6842042

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6842042 his stats are 17/16/7 over 81 hands
[3:08:07 PM] adrian c: im not 100% sure what to do in these spots, is this a fold?
[3:09:15 PM] Geraldo22: its close
[3:09:26 PM] Geraldo22: in a soft tourney u could maybe look for a better spot
[3:09:35 PM] Geraldo22: is2.5x his std open size?
[3:09:48 PM] Geraldo22: I feel like a lot of the fish go bigger when they have the goods
[3:10:03 PM] adrian c: i feel that too, but i have no idea
[3:10:11 PM] adrian c: i dont know if thats his standard open
[3:10:15 PM] Geraldo22: that being said if u run it thru hrc im sure itd say its def a jam
[3:12:34 PM] Jeroen Aarts: i agree with you geraldo
[3:12:48 PM] Jeroen Aarts: in a soft tourney i dont mind a fold pre
[3:12:57 PM] Jeroen Aarts: because all other options suck
[3:13:17 PM] Jeroen Aarts: 2.5ex i would give respect too
[3:13:43 PM] adrian c: does nobody open raise 2.5x as a standard anymore?
[3:13:47 PM] Jeroen Aarts: imo ill prolly go fo
fold > reshove allin > 3b/c > 3b/f > flat
[3:14:09 PM] Jeroen Aarts: not that much anymore :)

Watch Apestyles' pokertracker series

TODO: study test

1. What is a 16% pokerstove range?
    a) what is the number of combos
    b) how many combos hit top pair on Td 7s 3h
    c) how many combos have a gutshot?
    d) how many combos of overpairs and ace highs?
    e) what are the hottest cards, which improve you, which     improve him

2. What is a 22% pokerstove range?
    a) what is the number of combos
    b) how many combos hit top pair on 5c 2c 2s
    c) how many combos have a gutshot?
    d) how many combos of overpairs and ace highs?
    e) what are the hottest cards?

3. Estimate a 8% 3bet range, how well does it do on Qs 9s 7d?
    a) Jd 9d 2c
    b) 8d 2c 2h
    c) 2c 3d 6h


Solve these ranges:

1) 77+,A7s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

Answer:

1) Pocket pairs:
77-AA = 14-7+1 = 8 hands
= 8 x 6 = 48 combos
= 8*0.45 = ~3.5%

2) Suited:
A7s+,K9s+, Q9s+, JTs =

A7-AK = 13-7+1 = 7 +
K9-KQ = 12-9+1 = 4 +
Q9s+ = 11-9+1 = 3 +
JTs = 1

= 15 hands
= 15 x 4 = 60 combos
= 15* 0.3 = 4.5%


3) Offsuit:
ATo+,KTo+,QJo =
ATo - AKo = 13-10+1 = 4
KTo  - KQo = 12-10+1 = 3
QJo = 1
= 8 hands
= 8 * 12 = 96 combos
= 8 * 0.9 = 7.2%

---
48/60/96
= 204 combos
= ~ 15% range

------------------------------------------------------------
2) 66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+

PP:
14-6+1 = 9 hands
 = 54 combos

Suited:
A5s+ = 9 hands
K9s+ = 4 hands
Q9s+ = 3 hands
J9s+ =  2 hands
T9s = 1 hand
= 19 hands
= 76 combos

Offsuit:
A9o+ = 5 hands
KTo+ = 3 hands
QT+ = 2 hands
 = 10 hands
= 120 combos

---
56/76/120
=  250 combos = ~18%

------------------------------------------


3) 99+,AQs+,AKo

PP:
= 14-9 + 1 = 6 hands
= 36 combos
= 6* 0.45 = 2.8%

Suited:
= 2 hands
= 8 combos
= 2 * 0.3 = 0.6%

Offsuit:
= 1 hand
= 12 combo
= 1*0.9 = 0.9%


= 36/8/12
= 56 combos
= ~4.3% range
---------------------------------------------

4) 88+,A6s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A6o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o

PP:
= 7 hands
= 42 combos
= ~3.1%

Suited:
a6s+ (8h), k9s+ (4h), QTs+ (2h), JTs (1h)
= 15 hands
= 60 combos
= 4.5%

Offsuit:
A6o+ (8h), k9o+ (4h), Q9o+ (3h), J9o+ (2h), T9o (1h)
= 18 hands
= 216 combos
= 16.2%


= 24%





5) 33+,A6s+,K3s+,Q7s+,J8s+,A6o+,K4o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
6) 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,32s,A6o+,K4o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o

Video notes: Classroom Downswings Part 1 by benabadbead

Factors of a downswing (cyclical)

Running bad > Playing Bad > Lack of confidence > Running bad > Playing bad.......

- the word variance is used too much, sometimes you're just not playing your A game, and that's more likely when you have no confidence and you're running bad. You always hear about people running bad, but you never hear anyone admit that they're playing bad.


Jared Tendler's Inch Worm (Mental game of poker)

It is a method of improving your mental game over time.

1) Move from the back. In poker terms, this means that to improve your game, you need to work on the weakest parts of your overall game. By doing this, you set new standards for your 'worst game'.

2) Be aware of your worst game. Go into PT4 and look at your downswings. You'll play those spots a little better next time, and you'll inch forward.

3) Be honest with yourself. Ask others' opinions on hands.

It is extremely easy to convince yourself that you're playing your A-game when you're not.

---

Tips for dealing with downswings:

- cut down on tables
- discuss strategy with other good players
- don't break bankroll rules!
- run filters in PT4 - to look at hands and your stats
- be realistic with your play



 


 

 

HAND REVIEW - Facing a preflop 3bet against a strong range

I'm unsure about this hand:
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6833725


I think the variables to note are:
- villain has 39bb, I have 45bb
- I raised UTG
- his 3bet sizing (4x)

- one thing I haven't considered is the utg+1 caller. I really have no idea what he's doing this with.
- I don't think villain's position matters at all here as he is doing this purely based on his cards. I highly doubt he'd be 3betting me light considering I raised UTG.

---
I only have 128 hands on villain, I don't think that's enough to be looking at positional 3bet stats. However, his 3bet stat is 11%. That said, I don't think he is 3betting 11% against utg opens. His cbet stat is 6/9 (67%).

I put his range at JJ+, AQs+, AKo.  (Should I even include JJ in this range given that I have JJ?)

Against this range, I have 38% according to pokerstove. However there are more combinations of AK than any other hand in this range, so should the plan be to call flop and fold on AXX or KXX flops?

It feels pretty criminal to be folding JJ here preflop, but his range seems very nutted. Should I have perhaps folded the flop? I don't expect him to fold the flop after committing so much of his stack. So I guess the question is would he commit himself with AK on that flop?

My guess:

I'm thinking we should fold the flop. It feels like the combination of 3betting a utg open 4x and committing himself on the flop is a bit too strong for AK, so I'd be facing a JJ+ range which I obviously do very poorly against. Thoughts?

---
Edit: After talking this hand over with a few friends, the general consensus seems to be:
1) this is a shitty spot
2) his range is super nutted, considering both my range and utg+1's is super strong.
3) JJ should probably be the bottom of our range for continuing this hand.

Cardrunners - 3betting with shallow stack depth in MTTs by Matthew Janda

Cardrunners - 3betting with shallow stack depth in MTTs by Matthew Janda (35bb and lower)



As stack sizes get smaller, how should the big blind calling range change?
- It should get wider. It is easier to realize your equity as you can't face large bets. 

Should we emphasize robust or non-robust equity when calling an open in the BB?
- Non-robust. We can't win enough money with straights and flushes to play robust hands with shallow stacks.

Small 3bets with very shallow stack depth don't make sense.
- we're usually dealing with wide ranges (eg. CO vs BB), and every hand has a lot of equity prflop.
- we don't deny equity well with small 3bets and our opponent can jam over our 3bet and we almost always have to call. So we might as well jam instead.

You're better off not giving villain an option to shove over your 3bet when you're shallow, you might as well shove because you're going to have to call his shove most of the time anyway. If you're ever 3betting so much of your stack that you always have to call to a jam, you might as well shove instead.

• You don't want to give him the option to call because of the amazing odds you're giving him.

So how big do stacks need to be before we stop just jamming when we 3bet? (How deep do we need to be to make small 3bets instead of jamming)
- around 20bb. However tournament pros go lower than that even.

For example, for 18bb:
If we 3bet to 5bb and we get jammed on, it'll be 13bb to win 23.5bb (18+5+0.5), we'll only need 35% equity, which is very easy to have.

Basically with 18bb, once you 3bet you can't really fold as you'll only need 35% equity to call profitably.

 ---

Example: 

We have 25bb effective and the button min-raises. What 3bet sizing should we use in the BB?
- All the options seem bad. A small 3bet sizing gives the button a good price and still forces us to call often against his jam. He'll have position and good odds to call. If we 3bet to 5bb, we'll be risking 20bb to win 30.5bb on the opponent's jam and we'll need 39.6% equity to call.

However, 3betting all in seems a bit excessive as we're risking 24bb to win 3.5bb.

- Maybe we should based this decision on our hand.

We should 3bet small with hands that are fine with having the 3bet called - KK and such. With KK we don't want the opponent to fold and we just don't want him to flop an ace. (we're not afraid of letting him see a flop)

Also maybe we should 3bet small with hands that are OK with folding to the jam. Eg. KJo. However even KJo is a really good hand vs a btn open.

So hands that we 3bet big should be hands that hate having the 3bet called and hate facing a 4bet. Eg. don't 3bet small with AXs, AQ, 55, etc. because if villain jams, we still have to call - so why give him the option? Why would we be 3betting small to begin with?



Don't 3bet small with hands that aren't going to fold to a jam. If you're going to 3bet small and call a jam, you might as well just jam. 

We should 3bet small with hands that can see a flop, ie. KK. With KK, we don't want villain to fold preflop. And hands that we can fold to a jam - eg. KJo.

(ended 14:00)

Donk Betting - by Assassinato

http://www.wptmag.com/wpt-academy.php?articleID=39

Video Notes: Cardrunners: Replayer how to part 1 by grindmentality

First hand:

We flop top pair top kicker with the nut blocker (Ac9h on 2c 9d 5c) . Hero bets 33%, villain check raises. Jam or call?

• look at flop check raise stat (should be on right click pop-up menu of pt4)
• grindermentality says he dislikes putting in another bet here that isn't a jam because it allows villain to play perfectly against us and a jam would look weaker than a re-raise. 

New concept: allowing villain to play perfectly against us. Inquire more into this concept, as I don't understand it fully. However, I believe it means that you give villain more information so he can play his range more effectively - eg. re-raising his check-raise instead of jamming so he'll fold out his bad hands and shove his good hands.

New concept:  Having the nut blocker. I don't include this in my thoughts at the poker table enough. For example, if you have the nut blocker on a flush draw board, jamming might not be the best idea because you block a lot of his  flush draw hands. Also in second hand, he has KdQd on 8h 2h Jd - he blocks straights, he also blocks two combinations of jacks that people would play in this spot (QJ, KJ).




Second hand:

New concept: Donk betting. It is becoming more common even among regs.

New concept: Capped range. Villain donk bet on 82Jtt, bet suited 6 turn and grindermentality says villain has a capped range.

(ended 20:25)






HOMEWORK:
a) Learn more about concept #1
b) Learn more about donk betting
c) Learn more about capped ranges.

Visualizing Ranges

Recent poker thought #1: I've been using flopzilla to look at preflop ranges and I've been looking at the differences between the different preflop hand models the program has (Pokerstove, Sklansky-Malmuth, sklansky chubukov). I was trying to memorize some of the ranges for the pokerstove model but realized:

Ranges with the same percentages don't necessarily contain the same hands. For example, a 10% preflop 3bet range is not going to be the same as a preflop open raising range.


Therefore, memorizing the models seems kind of useless. However, I do believe it would be beneficial to practice visualizing ranges so I could do it in real time. A little guide for myself and possibly others:

- An offsuit hand (eg. AKo) = 0.9% (12 combos)
- A suited hand (eg. AKs) = 0.3% (4 combos)
- A pocket pair hand (eg. 55) = 0.45% (6 combos)

REMEMBER: 4-6-12 for combos. 0.3, 0.45, 0.9 percentages.

---

For easy memorization, these are some common ranges and percentages:

All Pocket pairs: (22+) = 6%
Broadway aka 5x5 Square: (TT+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo) = 14%
Broadway plus all pairs: (22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo) = 18%


There are:
- 12 AX hands (A2-AK)
- 11 KX hands
- 10 QX hands
- 9 JX hands
- 8 TX hands
- 7 9X hands
- 6 8X hands
- 5 7X hands
- 4 6X hands
- 3 5X hands
- 2 4X hands
- 1 3X hand


Hand range formula:

(A2-AK = 13-2+1 = 12 hands)
Q6-QT = 10-6+1 = 5 hands

Remember that A = 14, K = 13, Q = 12, J = 11, T = 10...


Therefore,

all suited aces = 12 * 0.3 = 3.6%
all suited kings = 11 * 0.3 = 3.3%



---
Homework:

Use pt4 to filter different 3bet ranges and see what hands show up most often.
what kind of hands show up in a 10% preflop 3betters range?
what kind of hands show up in a 13% preflop 3betters range?
Add 4bet to your your stat, and can we somehow add 3bet fold? Add checkraise stat.
Compare your stats to 62p and TNP. Especially f3b.
Look at the ‘in a 3bet pot’ stat.