So I was watching a Run It Once video (clutch hero) and was surprised about a hand:
Basically we have 9bb in the BB with TJo and Clutch Hero says he'd call an open shove with TJo in this spot. So I decided to run it through HRC:
The stacks are as follows:
UTG1 9.5BB
UTG2 10BB
MP1 55BB
MP2 29BB
HIJ 49BB
CO 16BB
BTN 13BB
SB 72BB
BB 9BB
-----
HRC says SB should be shoving 75% of hands which is everything pretty much down to 87o, t6o+, j4o+, q2o+, k2o+, a2o+, almost every suited except 62s-82s and 42s, 32s.
And we should be calling with 52% of hands:
22+, Kx+, Q2s+, Q5o+, J5s+, J7o+, T8o+, 97s
So he was right. Turns out I'm not calling enough in this spot
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Hand Review: KK Postflop
[b][3/436][/b]
##########################################
PokerStars Game 139895652701 / Tournament
Table 1303714055 26 -
Blinds : [b][color=darkred]10/20[/color][/b]
##########################################
9 players
[b][SB] [/b]jcmspoker (5970)
[b][BB] [/b]kartrid (6030)
[1] BaaadNews (3150)
[2] [b]Fabaz (9000) [/b]
[3] xPoisonUAx (2942)
[4] Todd12345 (6091)
[5] KAMSHULER (3086)
[6] dorschcharli (8902)
[b][But] [/b]Brownwingsx3 (9046)
Fabaz K:diamond: K:club: [b]Initial Pot: 30
[/b]
BaaadNews calls 20
Fabaz raises to 100
[i]xPoisonUAx folds[/i]
[i]Todd12345 folds[/i]
[i]KAMSHULER folds[/i]
dorschcharli calls 100
Brownwingsx3 calls 100
[i]jcmspoker folds[/i]
[i]kartrid folds[/i]
BaaadNews calls 80
### FLOP ### 3:diamond: J:spade: 7:heart: [b]Pot: 430[/b]
BaaadNews checks
Fabaz bets 260
[i]dorschcharli folds[/i]
Brownwingsx3 calls 260
BaaadNews calls 260
### TURN ### 2:diamond: [b]Pot: 1210[/b]
BaaadNews checks
Fabaz bets 740
Brownwingsx3 calls 740
BaaadNews raises to 1560
Fabaz raises to 2380
[i]Brownwingsx3 folds[/i]
BaaadNews is All in
Fabaz calls 410
### RIVER ### 3:club: [b]Pot: 7530[/b]
BaaadNews shows 7:diamond: 7:spade:
Fabaz shows K:diamond: K:club:
[color=violet][b]BaaadNews[/b][/color] wins 7530 from the main pot with A Full House, sevens full of treys
[color=violet][b]BaaadNews[/b][/color] wins 7530 from the main pot with A Full House, sevens full of treys
----
Sorry for the formatting, it's from Universal Hand Replayer. So I actually think this is a fold on the turn. There just isn't a single hand we can beat. BaaadNews checkraised a blank 2 into two people who are at least somewhat committed to the pot, he is definitely not doing this with AJ (not that he'd play AJ like this anyway). He wouldn't play QQ like this either.
Update
Haven't updated the blog in a while, but I've been putting in volume and studying a lot. Currently I'm trying to look for changes and trends in player pools month by month. Things I want to look at:
vpip, pfr, 3b, limp, limp fold, cbet f, cbet t, fold to cbet, fold to cbet 3way pot, cbet flop success, fold to 3bet, wtsd.
Really it would be useful to look at all meaningful stats and adjust accordingly.
More to come.
vpip, pfr, 3b, limp, limp fold, cbet f, cbet t, fold to cbet, fold to cbet 3way pot, cbet flop success, fold to 3bet, wtsd.
Really it would be useful to look at all meaningful stats and adjust accordingly.
More to come.
Friday, August 14, 2015
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6909319
Points to this hand:
- Ace on the river obviously makes it less likely that he has an ace in his hand.
Points I neglected:
- Although the ace on the river does reduce the chance of him having an ace, the fact that I have the Kd reduces the chance that he's on a draw.
Where to Improve:
- check back the flop, as well as with AK:
- if he raises us and we get it all-in on the flop, we're not doing so great against his range. His range would be strong combo draws, two pairs, sets and QJ for the straight.
- we aren't afraid of any turn cards.
---
So I decided to go over this hand in flopzilla and illustrate the points above:
let's give him a range of 88+, AQo+, KQo, AJs+, KQs (5.18%)
Obviously he's probably usually 4betting AA, KK and probably QQ preflop, but let's just try this range for now.
Against that range, on a Ah Jd Td flop:
- 61% equity for range
- 38% equity for hand
1) Obviously we don't want to get it all in on the flop given that we are 38% against his range.
---
With flopzilla, we can also see which turn cards improve the range, and which improve our hand:
- A/K are basically a tie, two kings are obviously blocked, and presumably some aces because of his range. A Queen is ~70% for our range. Jacks and tens are ~60% for his range. 9s and 8s are especially good for his range (73%). 7s all the way down to 2s around 67% for his range. Basically the takeaway is that most cards don't change the equity much other than 8s and 9s which are good for his range (if we include 88/99 in his preflop raise/call range, and Queens which are good for my hand.
2) Obviously there aren't many turn cards we are afraid of. The vast majority of turn cards don't change the equity drastically from the flop to the turn.
3) He doesn't have many draws in his range because we have the Kd. (Kinda)
- He'll actually have gutshots 44% of the time. (QQ, KK, AQ, AK)
- But if we change our card from the Kd to the Ks, he has flushdraws 5% of the time compared to 1.8%.
Points to this hand:
- Ace on the river obviously makes it less likely that he has an ace in his hand.
Points I neglected:
- Although the ace on the river does reduce the chance of him having an ace, the fact that I have the Kd reduces the chance that he's on a draw.
Where to Improve:
- check back the flop, as well as with AK:
- if he raises us and we get it all-in on the flop, we're not doing so great against his range. His range would be strong combo draws, two pairs, sets and QJ for the straight.
- we aren't afraid of any turn cards.
---
So I decided to go over this hand in flopzilla and illustrate the points above:
let's give him a range of 88+, AQo+, KQo, AJs+, KQs (5.18%)
Obviously he's probably usually 4betting AA, KK and probably QQ preflop, but let's just try this range for now.
Against that range, on a Ah Jd Td flop:
- 61% equity for range
- 38% equity for hand
1) Obviously we don't want to get it all in on the flop given that we are 38% against his range.
---
With flopzilla, we can also see which turn cards improve the range, and which improve our hand:
- A/K are basically a tie, two kings are obviously blocked, and presumably some aces because of his range. A Queen is ~70% for our range. Jacks and tens are ~60% for his range. 9s and 8s are especially good for his range (73%). 7s all the way down to 2s around 67% for his range. Basically the takeaway is that most cards don't change the equity much other than 8s and 9s which are good for his range (if we include 88/99 in his preflop raise/call range, and Queens which are good for my hand.
2) Obviously there aren't many turn cards we are afraid of. The vast majority of turn cards don't change the equity drastically from the flop to the turn.
3) He doesn't have many draws in his range because we have the Kd. (Kinda)
- He'll actually have gutshots 44% of the time. (QQ, KK, AQ, AK)
- But if we change our card from the Kd to the Ks, he has flushdraws 5% of the time compared to 1.8%.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
Update
I haven't posted an update in a while since I've been grinding. The grind has been pretty tough but I'm not completely satisfied with my play either. Luckily I've got a tonne of hand reviews to do and a lot of learning material.
Some concepts I've yet to implement:
- not 3betting with the nuts always. As a few of my friends told me, I should flat KK/AA in some spots if I have shoving stacks behind me left to act.
- I still cbet way too much. Upcoming hand review will exemplify this.
Some concepts I've yet to implement:
- not 3betting with the nuts always. As a few of my friends told me, I should flat KK/AA in some spots if I have shoving stacks behind me left to act.
- I still cbet way too much. Upcoming hand review will exemplify this.
Thursday, August 6, 2015
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
HAND REVIEW: QKs in SB vs. a UTG raise [40bb eff.]
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6879606
Monday, August 3, 2015
HAND REVIEW: Weird spot with 99
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874977
So I don't remember anything about this hand, and I don't feel like looking through my DB for it again - I don't know the icm details, so this is purely a chipev calculation. No reads on anyone.
- utg raises 2x with 58bb.
- utg+1 3b shoves for 12bb.
Fold, Fold
We have 99 in the hijack, we have 64bb.
--------------
So this is a pretty nasty spot first of all. I think we made a mistake here. If utg wasn't involved and we were just calling utg+1's 12bb shove, I'd have no problem with this play. But if we give utg an 8% range (AJs+, AJo+, 66+) which I think is pretty reasonable, and utg+1 a 10% range (A8s+, ATo+, 55+, KQs), (these are default ranges from icmizer btw), then this is a losing play - we should be calling with TT+, AKs+.
Even if we widen the ranges to 9.5% for utg and 11% for utg+1, it is still a losing play according to icmizer.
---------------
Why is it a bad play?
- because vs. a narrow utg open, we aren't doing so well. We are flipping against ATs+, and AQo+, and we're dominated by any of his pocket pairs except for maybe 88.
- because he can still deny us the opportunity to realize our equity. I imagine we are folding if he shoves preflop, and he can certainly do this with his AXs.
----------------
A friend also pointed out that I can cbet less (30% of pot) here because of the small effective stacks behind, and fold to a shove. I haven't considered this option but it seems good. The second reason is because it is a protected pot (when one player is already all in). So as my friend put it, if he's bluffing with ace high, he probably won't even win the sidepot vs the shortie, so denying me my equity doesn't do much. "it makes it much less interesting to bluff you out of the pot, so you can make it really small"
So I don't remember anything about this hand, and I don't feel like looking through my DB for it again - I don't know the icm details, so this is purely a chipev calculation. No reads on anyone.
- utg raises 2x with 58bb.
- utg+1 3b shoves for 12bb.
Fold, Fold
We have 99 in the hijack, we have 64bb.
--------------
So this is a pretty nasty spot first of all. I think we made a mistake here. If utg wasn't involved and we were just calling utg+1's 12bb shove, I'd have no problem with this play. But if we give utg an 8% range (AJs+, AJo+, 66+) which I think is pretty reasonable, and utg+1 a 10% range (A8s+, ATo+, 55+, KQs), (these are default ranges from icmizer btw), then this is a losing play - we should be calling with TT+, AKs+.
Even if we widen the ranges to 9.5% for utg and 11% for utg+1, it is still a losing play according to icmizer.
---------------
Why is it a bad play?
- because vs. a narrow utg open, we aren't doing so well. We are flipping against ATs+, and AQo+, and we're dominated by any of his pocket pairs except for maybe 88.
- because he can still deny us the opportunity to realize our equity. I imagine we are folding if he shoves preflop, and he can certainly do this with his AXs.
----------------
A friend also pointed out that I can cbet less (30% of pot) here because of the small effective stacks behind, and fold to a shove. I haven't considered this option but it seems good. The second reason is because it is a protected pot (when one player is already all in). So as my friend put it, if he's bluffing with ace high, he probably won't even win the sidepot vs the shortie, so denying me my equity doesn't do much. "it makes it much less interesting to bluff you out of the pot, so you can make it really small"
HAND REVIEW: A9s utg raise w/ 11bb
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874951
So a recent leak of mine is trying to min-raise with sub-20bb stacks. It's arguable that it isn't a problem when you're 15-20bb deep, but I'm pretty sure it's just best to shove here. I don't have a big enough stack to play post flop effectively and I'm letting in worse hands to see the flop. Also I don't think this is a fold, we have 11bb and the blinds are coming in 1 hand. Icmizer says this is a shove fwiw.
It's pretty devastating to be min-raising A9s here, and it certainly cost us our tournament life here. If we get raised, do we fold? That would be pretty awful. If we get called, we're committed on the flop anyway.
So a recent leak of mine is trying to min-raise with sub-20bb stacks. It's arguable that it isn't a problem when you're 15-20bb deep, but I'm pretty sure it's just best to shove here. I don't have a big enough stack to play post flop effectively and I'm letting in worse hands to see the flop. Also I don't think this is a fold, we have 11bb and the blinds are coming in 1 hand. Icmizer says this is a shove fwiw.
It's pretty devastating to be min-raising A9s here, and it certainly cost us our tournament life here. If we get raised, do we fold? That would be pretty awful. If we get called, we're committed on the flop anyway.
Hand review: T6o in the CO
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874856
so villain is 16/11/4, defending vs 2bets in the bb 33% (4/12).
1) I'm not crazy about opening this wide in the CO.
2) Obviously there isn't supposed to be many 4's in his defending range. We need him to be shoving flush draws and possibly some pocket pairs (66-99) for our play to work. I don't think he's less likely to shove flush draws because of the paired board, and I highly doubt that somebody playing 16/11/4 is going to shove the flop with second pair (pocket pairs).
If he's not shoving flush draws and pocket pairs, he is only really shoving better 10s, and whatever 4s he defends.
Terribly played :)
so villain is 16/11/4, defending vs 2bets in the bb 33% (4/12).
1) I'm not crazy about opening this wide in the CO.
2) Obviously there isn't supposed to be many 4's in his defending range. We need him to be shoving flush draws and possibly some pocket pairs (66-99) for our play to work. I don't think he's less likely to shove flush draws because of the paired board, and I highly doubt that somebody playing 16/11/4 is going to shove the flop with second pair (pocket pairs).
If he's not shoving flush draws and pocket pairs, he is only really shoving better 10s, and whatever 4s he defends.
Terribly played :)
Saturday, August 1, 2015
**** ADD 3B NOTE TO PT4 ****
NP (1450) [18/17/8]
VP: 18
R1: 25
3B: 8
CB: 77
CBT: 57
FCB: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
F3B: 75
FSTL: 65
CL2: 4
LI: 0
LF:-
D: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
XX(11K) [16/11/4]
VP:16
R1:18
3B: 4
CB:47
CBT: 33
FCB: 56
F3B: 75
FSTL: 83
CL2: 9
LI: 3
LF: 61
D: 4
- DOES R1 INCLUDE LIMPERS BEFORE?
CAC (3.1K) [20/17/7]
VP: 20
R1: 26
3B: 7
CB: 61
CBT: 49
FCB: 61
F3B: 76
FSTL: 73
CL2:7
LI:2
LF:80
D: 4
* ADD 4B TO HUD
OM
VP:24
R1: 25
3B: 9
CB: 67
CBT: 46
FCB:49
F3B:72
FSTL: 54
CL2: 15
LI: 4
LF: 37
D: 28
NP (1450) [18/17/8]
VP: 18
R1: 25
3B: 8
CB: 77
CBT: 57
FCB: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
F3B: 75
FSTL: 65
CL2: 4
LI: 0
LF:-
D: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
XX(11K) [16/11/4]
VP:16
R1:18
3B: 4
CB:47
CBT: 33
FCB: 56
F3B: 75
FSTL: 83
CL2: 9
LI: 3
LF: 61
D: 4
- DOES R1 INCLUDE LIMPERS BEFORE?
CAC (3.1K) [20/17/7]
VP: 20
R1: 26
3B: 7
CB: 61
CBT: 49
FCB: 61
F3B: 76
FSTL: 73
CL2:7
LI:2
LF:80
D: 4
* ADD 4B TO HUD
OM
VP:24
R1: 25
3B: 9
CB: 67
CBT: 46
FCB:49
F3B:72
FSTL: 54
CL2: 15
LI: 4
LF: 37
D: 28
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Breaking down a person's range
Thought this might be a neat little exercise after talking with a friend. I think it would be good to break down a person's range for practice because we'll be able to range other players better in the future. Also it'll show how all the stats are connected, maybe we'll be able to estimate some stats based on others.
We're going to be looking at vpip, pfr, 3bet, fold to 3bet, call pf 2bet and 4bet:
player3: (3079 hands)
VPIP: 24.23
PFR: 17.11
3BET: 8.85
FOLD TO 3BET: 72.40
CALL PF 2BET: 15.06
4BET: 10.45
-----
So obviously this player has a pretty wide gap between vpip and pfr. What does it consist of?
We have 3079 hands on him.
- he voluntarily put money in the pot 736/3079 = 24%
- he raised first in 360/3079 = 12%
-
- he 3bet 93/1051 = 9% (1051 is his 3bet opportunities)
VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+
vpip = 0.53(0.13) + 0.48(5.91) + 0.48(24.75) + 0.39(15.29) + 0.06(16.76) + 0.02(66)
= 0.0689 + 2.8368 + 11.88 + 5.96 + 1.00 + 1.32
= ~23
-----
lets try it for another player:
VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+
= 4.10 + 15.69 + 24.67 + 8.85 + 10.45 + 0
DO THIS TOMORROW
------------
thoughts:
So I think using vpip/pfr/3bet as stats is bad. First of all, vpip is way too general. PFR is stupid because it includes raise first in, 3bet, 4bet, etc., and vpip obviously includes all of those as well.
We should be using:
- raise first in
- 3bet
- call any preflop 2b?
- call any pfr? (im thinking this one is bad too because its based on pfr)
- find a stat to show how often people are calling raises
- vpip pfr gap doesn't mean as much as it used to because of wider defending
We're going to be looking at vpip, pfr, 3bet, fold to 3bet, call pf 2bet and 4bet:
player3: (3079 hands)
VPIP: 24.23
PFR: 17.11
3BET: 8.85
FOLD TO 3BET: 72.40
CALL PF 2BET: 15.06
4BET: 10.45
-----
So obviously this player has a pretty wide gap between vpip and pfr. What does it consist of?
We have 3079 hands on him.
- he voluntarily put money in the pot 736/3079 = 24%
- he raised first in 360/3079 = 12%
-
- he 3bet 93/1051 = 9% (1051 is his 3bet opportunities)
VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+
vpip = 0.53(0.13) + 0.48(5.91) + 0.48(24.75) + 0.39(15.29) + 0.06(16.76) + 0.02(66)
= 0.0689 + 2.8368 + 11.88 + 5.96 + 1.00 + 1.32
= ~23
-----
lets try it for another player:
VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+
= 4.10 + 15.69 + 24.67 + 8.85 + 10.45 + 0
DO THIS TOMORROW
------------
thoughts:
So I think using vpip/pfr/3bet as stats is bad. First of all, vpip is way too general. PFR is stupid because it includes raise first in, 3bet, 4bet, etc., and vpip obviously includes all of those as well.
We should be using:
- raise first in
- 3bet
- call any preflop 2b?
- call any pfr? (im thinking this one is bad too because its based on pfr)
- find a stat to show how often people are calling raises
- vpip pfr gap doesn't mean as much as it used to because of wider defending
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
HAND REVIEW: QQ facing a 5bet shove
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6866591
- villain is playing 20/17/11 over 87 hands.
- we are 10 away from the money, (I'm 10/80, 70 get paid)
------
So at first I thought this hand was an unavoidable cooler, but I'm pretty sure it's a mistake now.
A friend's thoughts:
- by 4betting, we are folding out the hands in his range that we beat (AJ,AQ, JJ, TT) and we're committing ourselves against a 3% range. Keep in mind that there is 50bb effective.
Hands I think he might 3bet with:
99+, AJs+, AQo+
Hands he 5bet shoves:
QQ+, AKo+
I'm not even sure that he 5bet shoves AK for 50bb, but even against QQ+, AKo, we are 40%.
- also, 4bet folding here is obviously out of the question because we'd reduce our hand to 72o. We should've called the 3bet and kept his range wide postflop.
- villain is playing 20/17/11 over 87 hands.
- we are 10 away from the money, (I'm 10/80, 70 get paid)
------
So at first I thought this hand was an unavoidable cooler, but I'm pretty sure it's a mistake now.
A friend's thoughts:
- by 4betting, we are folding out the hands in his range that we beat (AJ,AQ, JJ, TT) and we're committing ourselves against a 3% range. Keep in mind that there is 50bb effective.
Hands I think he might 3bet with:
99+, AJs+, AQo+
Hands he 5bet shoves:
QQ+, AKo+
I'm not even sure that he 5bet shoves AK for 50bb, but even against QQ+, AKo, we are 40%.
- also, 4bet folding here is obviously out of the question because we'd reduce our hand to 72o. We should've called the 3bet and kept his range wide postflop.
Sunday, July 26, 2015
reminder: test out cbet filters
- gutshot/open ended - make sure that they only have a gutshot, not gutshot + middle pair etc.
Saturday, July 25, 2015
Luck
So this isn't a technical post or a hand review, just a few thoughts on luck. I remember hearing this in a cardrunners video and have been thinking about it for a few days. So I find that lots of good poker players have a horrible attitude about luck and expected value.
For example, we have AKo and we get in a flip against QJo. According to pokerstove we are a 65% favorite.
So we got it in good.
The problem is that people feel that AKo deserves to win this hand. So when they win, they think nothing of it because AKo is supposed to win - ignoring the fact that 35% of the time we lose this.
And this kind of thinking leads to disappointment when we lose 35% of the time.
Your AKo doesn't deserve anything. Random chance, pokerstars software, random number generators etc. don't (and can't) give a shit about the fact that you're a favorite - they just spit out a random flop, turn and river and you'll win on 65% of them and lose on 35%.
Yes, AKo is the 65% favorite, but 35% is still a lot, we will lose 1 in 3 times. We should still feel somewhat lucky when our AKo holds up - although not as lucky as when we have QJo and beat AKo.
For example, we have AKo and we get in a flip against QJo. According to pokerstove we are a 65% favorite.
So we got it in good.
The problem is that people feel that AKo deserves to win this hand. So when they win, they think nothing of it because AKo is supposed to win - ignoring the fact that 35% of the time we lose this.
And this kind of thinking leads to disappointment when we lose 35% of the time.
Your AKo doesn't deserve anything. Random chance, pokerstars software, random number generators etc. don't (and can't) give a shit about the fact that you're a favorite - they just spit out a random flop, turn and river and you'll win on 65% of them and lose on 35%.
Yes, AKo is the 65% favorite, but 35% is still a lot, we will lose 1 in 3 times. We should still feel somewhat lucky when our AKo holds up - although not as lucky as when we have QJo and beat AKo.
Friday, July 24, 2015
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
HAND REVIEW: K9s in SB facing a UTG raise and 2 callers
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6859116
So I did not squeeze here simply because I didn't think I'd get enough folds (on ipoker at least.)
Also I have reverse implied odds against the utg raiser, and playing postflop out of position would be pretty difficult against 2 others. After discussing this hand with a few good regs, this is looking more like a fold. Perhaps we should only be playing something like A2s+, 89s+, 22+ in the SB this way.
So I did not squeeze here simply because I didn't think I'd get enough folds (on ipoker at least.)
Also I have reverse implied odds against the utg raiser, and playing postflop out of position would be pretty difficult against 2 others. After discussing this hand with a few good regs, this is looking more like a fold. Perhaps we should only be playing something like A2s+, 89s+, 22+ in the SB this way.
HAND REVIEW: 88s on the btn facing an sb raise and bb shove
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6859034
SB = 21/14/4 over 72 hands
BB = 18/14/7 over 3k hands
- So SB raising got me worried considering his 3bet stat is 4%. According to stove a 4% range is 99+, AQs+, AKo, and I think that is accurate for 3bets.
- the BB's 4bet really worried me though. His 4bet stat is 8%. He is a reg who most likely uses a hud - so he'd probably know that SB never 3bets. I didn't think I was ahead of either of their ranges to be honest.
Everyone I asked about this agreed that it's a fold.
SB = 21/14/4 over 72 hands
BB = 18/14/7 over 3k hands
- So SB raising got me worried considering his 3bet stat is 4%. According to stove a 4% range is 99+, AQs+, AKo, and I think that is accurate for 3bets.
- the BB's 4bet really worried me though. His 4bet stat is 8%. He is a reg who most likely uses a hud - so he'd probably know that SB never 3bets. I didn't think I was ahead of either of their ranges to be honest.
Everyone I asked about this agreed that it's a fold.
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
HAND REVIEW: 2xing utg w/ 10bb (mistake)
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6858126
This is definitely a mistake I've been doing too frequently recently. I've been experimenting with playing sub-20bb stacks, and this hand kind of illustrates the problem. By not shoving, we make mistakes by letting hands we are vulnerable to see the flop and essentially play perfectly against us. After we cbet the flop (which we should imo), we are priced in to call anyway. So they could continue on flops they hit well or just fold if they don't catch anything. If we could fold flop this play becomes good, which is obviously why we don't shove 25bb+ here.
This is definitely a mistake I've been doing too frequently recently. I've been experimenting with playing sub-20bb stacks, and this hand kind of illustrates the problem. By not shoving, we make mistakes by letting hands we are vulnerable to see the flop and essentially play perfectly against us. After we cbet the flop (which we should imo), we are priced in to call anyway. So they could continue on flops they hit well or just fold if they don't catch anything. If we could fold flop this play becomes good, which is obviously why we don't shove 25bb+ here.
iPoker hall of fame #2
http://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-Statistics//networks/iPoker/players/LadyMC?filter=Entrants:30~*
HAND REVIEW: Weird 3bet
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6858114
So this hand happened near the bubble, and therefore I don't think it's a bad open. But after talking it over with a few people, it's probably a fold pre considering there are several shoving stacks behind me.
- However, I'm not so sure that people are shoving 15-20bb very much anymore. I might be wrong about that.
- They had nitty stats (fold to steal, pfr and vpip), so I expect to take it down preflop a lot.
- Near the bubble, so they're more likely to fold.
So this hand happened near the bubble, and therefore I don't think it's a bad open. But after talking it over with a few people, it's probably a fold pre considering there are several shoving stacks behind me.
- However, I'm not so sure that people are shoving 15-20bb very much anymore. I might be wrong about that.
- They had nitty stats (fold to steal, pfr and vpip), so I expect to take it down preflop a lot.
- Near the bubble, so they're more likely to fold.
Reminder: Defending
Find new videos on defending
Imo the variables would be position of raiser and his range based on stats, your hand (suited connectors in some situations, pairs in another situation, etc.), stack size, bet size (3x seems really strong these days).
- basically if he has a nutted range, defend wider with 98s type hands, and pocket pairs
- however pocket pairs lose value against wider/weaker ranges ie. btn raises. I don't think defending pocket pairs is good in the blinds. (look it up on pt4 tmw)
- look into f3b stat.
Imo the variables would be position of raiser and his range based on stats, your hand (suited connectors in some situations, pairs in another situation, etc.), stack size, bet size (3x seems really strong these days).
- basically if he has a nutted range, defend wider with 98s type hands, and pocket pairs
- however pocket pairs lose value against wider/weaker ranges ie. btn raises. I don't think defending pocket pairs is good in the blinds. (look it up on pt4 tmw)
- look into f3b stat.
Monday, July 20, 2015
iPoker Hall of fame #1
http://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-Statistics//networks/iPoker/players/abpat?filter=Entrants:30~*
Playing a solid 53/31/22 obviously
Playing a solid 53/31/22 obviously
Sunday, July 19, 2015
HAND REVIEW: BTN Preflop Shove w/ 10bb & no antes
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6849342
I'm not exactly sure on the range I should be shoving here with no antes. I don't think it's an atc shove.
Let's plug it into icmizer to see nash shoving ranges in this spot:
According to icmizer we should be shoving 45% of hands here, and Q8o does not fall in the shoving range. However, I firmly believe that sb/bb are calling tighter than nash. For the record sb is supposed to call 35%, and bb overcall 31%, or bb call 37% if sb folds.
At least at the games I play, nobody is going to call 35% or 31% to a button shove. However when I give them more reasonable calling ranges, like 16% for sb, it becomes an atc shove. Even if we give them all 20% calling ranges, it is an atc shove.
I'm not exactly sure on the range I should be shoving here with no antes. I don't think it's an atc shove.
Let's plug it into icmizer to see nash shoving ranges in this spot:
According to icmizer we should be shoving 45% of hands here, and Q8o does not fall in the shoving range. However, I firmly believe that sb/bb are calling tighter than nash. For the record sb is supposed to call 35%, and bb overcall 31%, or bb call 37% if sb folds.
At least at the games I play, nobody is going to call 35% or 31% to a button shove. However when I give them more reasonable calling ranges, like 16% for sb, it becomes an atc shove. Even if we give them all 20% calling ranges, it is an atc shove.
Saturday, July 18, 2015
Friday, July 17, 2015
Jennifear's Push/Fold charts
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiRCAFDKL6fIdHE0QWt5elZMUkU4YzVrSlBVZk5EMFE#gid=0
HAND REVIEW: BTN shove with 6bb [ T7o ]
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6847472
Icmizer says this is a bad shove (-17.0). However, I don't think it's bad considering people aren't calling wide enough (well under nash ranges).
It might actually be +ev if we adjust their ranges and not use nash - still a marginal spot though, and I'm not sure how I feel about it.
Icmizer says this is a bad shove (-17.0). However, I don't think it's bad considering people aren't calling wide enough (well under nash ranges).
It might actually be +ev if we adjust their ranges and not use nash - still a marginal spot though, and I'm not sure how I feel about it.
HAND REVIEW: Reshove with 88
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6847467
This one is definitely a mistake. The problem is that the caller basically commits a third of his stack, so he's obviously not going to fold to my shove. I've talked to several other players about this hand, and the consensus is that he is doing this with an extremely strong range. He would reshove AJ+, as well as pocket pairs 66-10s approximately. I've personally never seen anyone show up here with AK even, I'm not sure I'm ever flipping, and he's definitely not doing this with 77 or lower so I'm never ahead. His range here seems to be JJ+ or QQ+
This one is definitely a mistake. The problem is that the caller basically commits a third of his stack, so he's obviously not going to fold to my shove. I've talked to several other players about this hand, and the consensus is that he is doing this with an extremely strong range. He would reshove AJ+, as well as pocket pairs 66-10s approximately. I've personally never seen anyone show up here with AK even, I'm not sure I'm ever flipping, and he's definitely not doing this with 77 or lower so I'm never ahead. His range here seems to be JJ+ or QQ+
http://www.cardrunners.com/poker-videos/replayer-sunday-major-final-table-part-2-assassinato/
REMINDER TO WATCH http://www.cardrunners.com/poker-videos/replayer-sunday-major-final-table-part-2-assassinato/
Thursday, July 16, 2015
Hand review: mistake with 66?
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6846940
Really I have no idea why I value bet the river.
1) I was never going to get called by worse (ie. K5?)
2) Do I get better hands to fold? I suppose a 7 might fold, any 8 is unlikely to fold because of the A-A runout. Still way to thin to bet the river I think. Obviously I didn't expect him to limp 99 preflop though.
Really I have no idea why I value bet the river.
1) I was never going to get called by worse (ie. K5?)
2) Do I get better hands to fold? I suppose a 7 might fold, any 8 is unlikely to fold because of the A-A runout. Still way to thin to bet the river I think. Obviously I didn't expect him to limp 99 preflop though.
HAND REVIEW: Strange River Raise
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6846935
Never expected him to be raising the river with A9, or even AK. He's playing 77/19/13, which is why I went for 3 streets of value. However I figured it's a bet-fold on the river. Thoughts?
Never expected him to be raising the river with A9, or even AK. He's playing 77/19/13, which is why I went for 3 streets of value. However I figured it's a bet-fold on the river. Thoughts?
ICMizer review of Daniel Negreanu's bust out hand
http://www.icmpoker.com/en/video/daniel-negreanu-bust-hand-wsop-2015-me-mistake/
HAND REVIEW: SB shove with 44 over a raise and call in LP
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6846923
Opener is playing 18/15/9 over 2k hands, but has been spewing chips at this table.
I figured that I'd be flipping a lot of the time as one of them would probably fold. Icmizer says this is actually a fold.
Opener is playing 18/15/9 over 2k hands, but has been spewing chips at this table.
I figured that I'd be flipping a lot of the time as one of them would probably fold. Icmizer says this is actually a fold.
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
HAND REVIEW: 3bet shove with 77
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6842042
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6842042 his stats are 17/16/7 over 81 hands
[3:08:07 PM] adrian c: im not 100% sure what to do in these spots, is this a fold?
[3:09:15 PM] Geraldo22: its close
[3:09:26 PM] Geraldo22: in a soft tourney u could maybe look for a better spot
[3:09:35 PM] Geraldo22: is2.5x his std open size?
[3:09:48 PM] Geraldo22: I feel like a lot of the fish go bigger when they have the goods
[3:10:03 PM] adrian c: i feel that too, but i have no idea
[3:10:11 PM] adrian c: i dont know if thats his standard open
[3:10:15 PM] Geraldo22: that being said if u run it thru hrc im sure itd say its def a jam
[3:12:34 PM] Jeroen Aarts: i agree with you geraldo
[3:12:48 PM] Jeroen Aarts: in a soft tourney i dont mind a fold pre
[3:12:57 PM] Jeroen Aarts: because all other options suck
[3:13:17 PM] Jeroen Aarts: 2.5ex i would give respect too
[3:13:43 PM] adrian c: does nobody open raise 2.5x as a standard anymore?
[3:13:47 PM] Jeroen Aarts: imo ill prolly go fo
fold > reshove allin > 3b/c > 3b/f > flat
[3:14:09 PM] Jeroen Aarts: not that much anymore :)
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6842042 his stats are 17/16/7 over 81 hands
[3:08:07 PM] adrian c: im not 100% sure what to do in these spots, is this a fold?
[3:09:15 PM] Geraldo22: its close
[3:09:26 PM] Geraldo22: in a soft tourney u could maybe look for a better spot
[3:09:35 PM] Geraldo22: is2.5x his std open size?
[3:09:48 PM] Geraldo22: I feel like a lot of the fish go bigger when they have the goods
[3:10:03 PM] adrian c: i feel that too, but i have no idea
[3:10:11 PM] adrian c: i dont know if thats his standard open
[3:10:15 PM] Geraldo22: that being said if u run it thru hrc im sure itd say its def a jam
[3:12:34 PM] Jeroen Aarts: i agree with you geraldo
[3:12:48 PM] Jeroen Aarts: in a soft tourney i dont mind a fold pre
[3:12:57 PM] Jeroen Aarts: because all other options suck
[3:13:17 PM] Jeroen Aarts: 2.5ex i would give respect too
[3:13:43 PM] adrian c: does nobody open raise 2.5x as a standard anymore?
[3:13:47 PM] Jeroen Aarts: imo ill prolly go fo
fold > reshove allin > 3b/c > 3b/f > flat
[3:14:09 PM] Jeroen Aarts: not that much anymore :)
Monday, July 13, 2015
TODO: study test
1. What is a 16% pokerstove range?
a) what is the number of combos
b) how many combos hit top pair on Td 7s 3h
c) how many combos have a gutshot?
d) how many combos of overpairs and ace highs?
e) what are the hottest cards, which improve you, which improve him
2. What is a 22% pokerstove range?
a) what is the number of combos
b) how many combos hit top pair on 5c 2c 2s
c) how many combos have a gutshot?
d) how many combos of overpairs and ace highs?
e) what are the hottest cards?
3. Estimate a 8% 3bet range, how well does it do on Qs 9s 7d?
a) Jd 9d 2c
b) 8d 2c 2h
c) 2c 3d 6h
Solve these ranges:
1) 77+,A7s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo
Answer:
1) Pocket pairs:
77-AA = 14-7+1 = 8 hands
= 8 x 6 = 48 combos
= 8*0.45 = ~3.5%
2) Suited:
A7s+,K9s+, Q9s+, JTs =
A7-AK = 13-7+1 = 7 +
K9-KQ = 12-9+1 = 4 +
Q9s+ = 11-9+1 = 3 +
JTs = 1
= 15 hands
= 15 x 4 = 60 combos
= 15* 0.3 = 4.5%
3) Offsuit:
ATo+,KTo+,QJo =
ATo - AKo = 13-10+1 = 4
KTo - KQo = 12-10+1 = 3
QJo = 1
= 8 hands
= 8 * 12 = 96 combos
= 8 * 0.9 = 7.2%
---
48/60/96
= 204 combos
= ~ 15% range
------------------------------------------------------------
2) 66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+
PP:
14-6+1 = 9 hands
= 54 combos
Suited:
A5s+ = 9 hands
K9s+ = 4 hands
Q9s+ = 3 hands
J9s+ = 2 hands
T9s = 1 hand
= 19 hands
= 76 combos
Offsuit:
A9o+ = 5 hands
KTo+ = 3 hands
QT+ = 2 hands
= 10 hands
= 120 combos
---
56/76/120
= 250 combos = ~18%
------------------------------------------
3) 99+,AQs+,AKo
PP:
= 14-9 + 1 = 6 hands
= 36 combos
= 6* 0.45 = 2.8%
Suited:
= 2 hands
= 8 combos
= 2 * 0.3 = 0.6%
Offsuit:
= 1 hand
= 12 combo
= 1*0.9 = 0.9%
= 36/8/12
= 56 combos
= ~4.3% range
---------------------------------------------
4) 88+,A6s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A6o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
PP:
= 7 hands
= 42 combos
= ~3.1%
Suited:
a6s+ (8h), k9s+ (4h), QTs+ (2h), JTs (1h)
= 15 hands
= 60 combos
= 4.5%
Offsuit:
A6o+ (8h), k9o+ (4h), Q9o+ (3h), J9o+ (2h), T9o (1h)
= 18 hands
= 216 combos
= 16.2%
= 24%
5) 33+,A6s+,K3s+,Q7s+,J8s+,A6o+,K4o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
6) 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,32s,A6o+,K4o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
a) what is the number of combos
b) how many combos hit top pair on Td 7s 3h
c) how many combos have a gutshot?
d) how many combos of overpairs and ace highs?
e) what are the hottest cards, which improve you, which improve him
2. What is a 22% pokerstove range?
a) what is the number of combos
b) how many combos hit top pair on 5c 2c 2s
c) how many combos have a gutshot?
d) how many combos of overpairs and ace highs?
e) what are the hottest cards?
3. Estimate a 8% 3bet range, how well does it do on Qs 9s 7d?
a) Jd 9d 2c
b) 8d 2c 2h
c) 2c 3d 6h
Solve these ranges:
1) 77+,A7s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo
Answer:
1) Pocket pairs:
77-AA = 14-7+1 = 8 hands
= 8 x 6 = 48 combos
= 8*0.45 = ~3.5%
2) Suited:
A7s+,K9s+, Q9s+, JTs =
A7-AK = 13-7+1 = 7 +
K9-KQ = 12-9+1 = 4 +
Q9s+ = 11-9+1 = 3 +
JTs = 1
= 15 hands
= 15 x 4 = 60 combos
= 15* 0.3 = 4.5%
3) Offsuit:
ATo+,KTo+,QJo =
ATo - AKo = 13-10+1 = 4
KTo - KQo = 12-10+1 = 3
QJo = 1
= 8 hands
= 8 * 12 = 96 combos
= 8 * 0.9 = 7.2%
---
48/60/96
= 204 combos
= ~ 15% range
------------------------------------------------------------
2) 66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+
PP:
14-6+1 = 9 hands
= 54 combos
Suited:
A5s+ = 9 hands
K9s+ = 4 hands
Q9s+ = 3 hands
J9s+ = 2 hands
T9s = 1 hand
= 19 hands
= 76 combos
Offsuit:
A9o+ = 5 hands
KTo+ = 3 hands
QT+ = 2 hands
= 10 hands
= 120 combos
---
56/76/120
= 250 combos = ~18%
------------------------------------------
3) 99+,AQs+,AKo
PP:
= 14-9 + 1 = 6 hands
= 36 combos
= 6* 0.45 = 2.8%
Suited:
= 2 hands
= 8 combos
= 2 * 0.3 = 0.6%
Offsuit:
= 1 hand
= 12 combo
= 1*0.9 = 0.9%
= 36/8/12
= 56 combos
= ~4.3% range
---------------------------------------------
4) 88+,A6s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A6o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
PP:
= 7 hands
= 42 combos
= ~3.1%
Suited:
a6s+ (8h), k9s+ (4h), QTs+ (2h), JTs (1h)
= 15 hands
= 60 combos
= 4.5%
Offsuit:
A6o+ (8h), k9o+ (4h), Q9o+ (3h), J9o+ (2h), T9o (1h)
= 18 hands
= 216 combos
= 16.2%
= 24%
5) 33+,A6s+,K3s+,Q7s+,J8s+,A6o+,K4o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
6) 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,32s,A6o+,K4o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
Saturday, July 11, 2015
Video notes: Classroom Downswings Part 1 by benabadbead
Factors of a downswing (cyclical)
Running bad > Playing Bad > Lack of confidence > Running bad > Playing bad.......
- the word variance is used too much, sometimes you're just not playing your A game, and that's more likely when you have no confidence and you're running bad. You always hear about people running bad, but you never hear anyone admit that they're playing bad.
Jared Tendler's Inch Worm (Mental game of poker)
It is a method of improving your mental game over time.
1) Move from the back. In poker terms, this means that to improve your game, you need to work on the weakest parts of your overall game. By doing this, you set new standards for your 'worst game'.
2) Be aware of your worst game. Go into PT4 and look at your downswings. You'll play those spots a little better next time, and you'll inch forward.
3) Be honest with yourself. Ask others' opinions on hands.
It is extremely easy to convince yourself that you're playing your A-game when you're not.
---
Tips for dealing with downswings:
- cut down on tables
- discuss strategy with other good players
- don't break bankroll rules!
- run filters in PT4 - to look at hands and your stats
- be realistic with your play
Running bad > Playing Bad > Lack of confidence > Running bad > Playing bad.......
- the word variance is used too much, sometimes you're just not playing your A game, and that's more likely when you have no confidence and you're running bad. You always hear about people running bad, but you never hear anyone admit that they're playing bad.
Jared Tendler's Inch Worm (Mental game of poker)
It is a method of improving your mental game over time.
1) Move from the back. In poker terms, this means that to improve your game, you need to work on the weakest parts of your overall game. By doing this, you set new standards for your 'worst game'.
2) Be aware of your worst game. Go into PT4 and look at your downswings. You'll play those spots a little better next time, and you'll inch forward.
3) Be honest with yourself. Ask others' opinions on hands.
It is extremely easy to convince yourself that you're playing your A-game when you're not.
---
Tips for dealing with downswings:
- cut down on tables
- discuss strategy with other good players
- don't break bankroll rules!
- run filters in PT4 - to look at hands and your stats
- be realistic with your play
HAND REVIEW - Facing a preflop 3bet against a strong range
I'm unsure about this hand:
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6833725
I think the variables to note are:
- villain has 39bb, I have 45bb
- I raised UTG
- his 3bet sizing (4x)
- one thing I haven't considered is the utg+1 caller. I really have no idea what he's doing this with.
- I don't think villain's position matters at all here as he is doing this purely based on his cards. I highly doubt he'd be 3betting me light considering I raised UTG.
---
I only have 128 hands on villain, I don't think that's enough to be looking at positional 3bet stats. However, his 3bet stat is 11%. That said, I don't think he is 3betting 11% against utg opens. His cbet stat is 6/9 (67%).
I put his range at JJ+, AQs+, AKo. (Should I even include JJ in this range given that I have JJ?)
Against this range, I have 38% according to pokerstove. However there are more combinations of AK than any other hand in this range, so should the plan be to call flop and fold on AXX or KXX flops?
It feels pretty criminal to be folding JJ here preflop, but his range seems very nutted. Should I have perhaps folded the flop? I don't expect him to fold the flop after committing so much of his stack. So I guess the question is would he commit himself with AK on that flop?
My guess:
I'm thinking we should fold the flop. It feels like the combination of 3betting a utg open 4x and committing himself on the flop is a bit too strong for AK, so I'd be facing a JJ+ range which I obviously do very poorly against. Thoughts?
---
Edit: After talking this hand over with a few friends, the general consensus seems to be:
1) this is a shitty spot
2) his range is super nutted, considering both my range and utg+1's is super strong.
3) JJ should probably be the bottom of our range for continuing this hand.
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6833725
I think the variables to note are:
- villain has 39bb, I have 45bb
- I raised UTG
- his 3bet sizing (4x)
- one thing I haven't considered is the utg+1 caller. I really have no idea what he's doing this with.
- I don't think villain's position matters at all here as he is doing this purely based on his cards. I highly doubt he'd be 3betting me light considering I raised UTG.
---
I only have 128 hands on villain, I don't think that's enough to be looking at positional 3bet stats. However, his 3bet stat is 11%. That said, I don't think he is 3betting 11% against utg opens. His cbet stat is 6/9 (67%).
I put his range at JJ+, AQs+, AKo. (Should I even include JJ in this range given that I have JJ?)
Against this range, I have 38% according to pokerstove. However there are more combinations of AK than any other hand in this range, so should the plan be to call flop and fold on AXX or KXX flops?
It feels pretty criminal to be folding JJ here preflop, but his range seems very nutted. Should I have perhaps folded the flop? I don't expect him to fold the flop after committing so much of his stack. So I guess the question is would he commit himself with AK on that flop?
My guess:
I'm thinking we should fold the flop. It feels like the combination of 3betting a utg open 4x and committing himself on the flop is a bit too strong for AK, so I'd be facing a JJ+ range which I obviously do very poorly against. Thoughts?
---
Edit: After talking this hand over with a few friends, the general consensus seems to be:
1) this is a shitty spot
2) his range is super nutted, considering both my range and utg+1's is super strong.
3) JJ should probably be the bottom of our range for continuing this hand.
Friday, July 10, 2015
Cardrunners - 3betting with shallow stack depth in MTTs by Matthew Janda
Cardrunners - 3betting with shallow stack depth in MTTs by Matthew Janda (35bb and lower)
As stack sizes get smaller, how should the big blind calling range change?
- It should get wider. It is easier to realize your equity as you can't face large bets.
Should we emphasize robust or non-robust equity when calling an open in the BB?
- Non-robust. We can't win enough money with straights and flushes to play robust hands with shallow stacks.
Small 3bets with very shallow stack depth don't make sense.
- we're usually dealing with wide ranges (eg. CO vs BB), and every hand has a lot of equity prflop.
- we don't deny equity well with small 3bets and our opponent can jam over our 3bet and we almost always have to call. So we might as well jam instead.
You're better off not giving villain an option to shove over your 3bet when you're shallow, you might as well shove because you're going to have to call his shove most of the time anyway. If you're ever 3betting so much of your stack that you always have to call to a jam, you might as well shove instead.
So how big do stacks need to be before we stop just jamming when we 3bet? (How deep do we need to be to make small 3bets instead of jamming)
- around 20bb. However tournament pros go lower than that even.
For example, for 18bb:
If we 3bet to 5bb and we get jammed on, it'll be 13bb to win 23.5bb (18+5+0.5), we'll only need 35% equity, which is very easy to have.
Basically with 18bb, once you 3bet you can't really fold as you'll only need 35% equity to call profitably.
---
Example:
We have 25bb effective and the button min-raises. What 3bet sizing should we use in the BB?
- All the options seem bad. A small 3bet sizing gives the button a good price and still forces us to call often against his jam. He'll have position and good odds to call. If we 3bet to 5bb, we'll be risking 20bb to win 30.5bb on the opponent's jam and we'll need 39.6% equity to call.
However, 3betting all in seems a bit excessive as we're risking 24bb to win 3.5bb.
- Maybe we should based this decision on our hand.
We should 3bet small with hands that are fine with having the 3bet called - KK and such. With KK we don't want the opponent to fold and we just don't want him to flop an ace. (we're not afraid of letting him see a flop)
Also maybe we should 3bet small with hands that are OK with folding to the jam. Eg. KJo. However even KJo is a really good hand vs a btn open.
So hands that we 3bet big should be hands that hate having the 3bet called and hate facing a 4bet. Eg. don't 3bet small with AXs, AQ, 55, etc. because if villain jams, we still have to call - so why give him the option? Why would we be 3betting small to begin with?
Don't 3bet small with hands that aren't going to fold to a jam. If you're going to 3bet small and call a jam, you might as well just jam.
We should 3bet small with hands that can see a flop, ie. KK. With KK, we don't want villain to fold preflop. And hands that we can fold to a jam - eg. KJo.
(ended 14:00)
As stack sizes get smaller, how should the big blind calling range change?
- It should get wider. It is easier to realize your equity as you can't face large bets.
Should we emphasize robust or non-robust equity when calling an open in the BB?
- Non-robust. We can't win enough money with straights and flushes to play robust hands with shallow stacks.
Small 3bets with very shallow stack depth don't make sense.
- we're usually dealing with wide ranges (eg. CO vs BB), and every hand has a lot of equity prflop.
- we don't deny equity well with small 3bets and our opponent can jam over our 3bet and we almost always have to call. So we might as well jam instead.
You're better off not giving villain an option to shove over your 3bet when you're shallow, you might as well shove because you're going to have to call his shove most of the time anyway. If you're ever 3betting so much of your stack that you always have to call to a jam, you might as well shove instead.
- You don't want to give him the option to call because of the amazing odds you're giving him.
So how big do stacks need to be before we stop just jamming when we 3bet? (How deep do we need to be to make small 3bets instead of jamming)
- around 20bb. However tournament pros go lower than that even.
For example, for 18bb:
If we 3bet to 5bb and we get jammed on, it'll be 13bb to win 23.5bb (18+5+0.5), we'll only need 35% equity, which is very easy to have.
Basically with 18bb, once you 3bet you can't really fold as you'll only need 35% equity to call profitably.
---
Example:
We have 25bb effective and the button min-raises. What 3bet sizing should we use in the BB?
- All the options seem bad. A small 3bet sizing gives the button a good price and still forces us to call often against his jam. He'll have position and good odds to call. If we 3bet to 5bb, we'll be risking 20bb to win 30.5bb on the opponent's jam and we'll need 39.6% equity to call.
However, 3betting all in seems a bit excessive as we're risking 24bb to win 3.5bb.
- Maybe we should based this decision on our hand.
We should 3bet small with hands that are fine with having the 3bet called - KK and such. With KK we don't want the opponent to fold and we just don't want him to flop an ace. (we're not afraid of letting him see a flop)
Also maybe we should 3bet small with hands that are OK with folding to the jam. Eg. KJo. However even KJo is a really good hand vs a btn open.
So hands that we 3bet big should be hands that hate having the 3bet called and hate facing a 4bet. Eg. don't 3bet small with AXs, AQ, 55, etc. because if villain jams, we still have to call - so why give him the option? Why would we be 3betting small to begin with?
Don't 3bet small with hands that aren't going to fold to a jam. If you're going to 3bet small and call a jam, you might as well just jam.
We should 3bet small with hands that can see a flop, ie. KK. With KK, we don't want villain to fold preflop. And hands that we can fold to a jam - eg. KJo.
(ended 14:00)
Thursday, July 9, 2015
Video Notes: Cardrunners: Replayer how to part 1 by grindmentality
First hand:
We flop top pair top kicker with the nut blocker (Ac9h on 2c 9d 5c) . Hero bets 33%, villain check raises. Jam or call?
New concept: Having the nut blocker. I don't include this in my thoughts at the poker table enough. For example, if you have the nut blocker on a flush draw board, jamming might not be the best idea because you block a lot of his flush draw hands. Also in second hand, he has KdQd on 8h 2h Jd - he blocks straights, he also blocks two combinations of jacks that people would play in this spot (QJ, KJ).
Second hand:
New concept: Donk betting. It is becoming more common even among regs.
New concept: Capped range. Villain donk bet on 82Jtt, bet suited 6 turn and grindermentality says villain has a capped range.
(ended 20:25)
HOMEWORK:
a) Learn more about concept #1
b) Learn more about donk betting
c) Learn more about capped ranges.
We flop top pair top kicker with the nut blocker (Ac9h on 2c 9d 5c) . Hero bets 33%, villain check raises. Jam or call?
- look at flop check raise stat (should be on right click pop-up menu of pt4)
- grindermentality says he dislikes putting in another bet here that isn't a jam because it allows villain to play perfectly against us and a jam would look weaker than a re-raise.
New concept: Having the nut blocker. I don't include this in my thoughts at the poker table enough. For example, if you have the nut blocker on a flush draw board, jamming might not be the best idea because you block a lot of his flush draw hands. Also in second hand, he has KdQd on 8h 2h Jd - he blocks straights, he also blocks two combinations of jacks that people would play in this spot (QJ, KJ).
Second hand:
New concept: Donk betting. It is becoming more common even among regs.
New concept: Capped range. Villain donk bet on 82Jtt, bet suited 6 turn and grindermentality says villain has a capped range.
(ended 20:25)
HOMEWORK:
a) Learn more about concept #1
b) Learn more about donk betting
c) Learn more about capped ranges.
Visualizing Ranges
Recent poker thought #1: I've been using flopzilla to look at preflop ranges and I've been looking at the differences between the different preflop hand models the program has (Pokerstove, Sklansky-Malmuth, sklansky chubukov). I was trying to memorize some of the ranges for the pokerstove model but realized:
Ranges with the same percentages don't necessarily contain the same hands. For example, a 10% preflop 3bet range is not going to be the same as a preflop open raising range.
Therefore, memorizing the models seems kind of useless. However, I do believe it would be beneficial to practice visualizing ranges so I could do it in real time. A little guide for myself and possibly others:
- An offsuit hand (eg. AKo) = 0.9% (12 combos)
- A suited hand (eg. AKs) = 0.3% (4 combos)
- A pocket pair hand (eg. 55) = 0.45% (6 combos)
REMEMBER: 4-6-12 for combos. 0.3, 0.45, 0.9 percentages.
---
For easy memorization, these are some common ranges and percentages:
All Pocket pairs: (22+) = 6%
Broadway aka 5x5 Square: (TT+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo) = 14%
Broadway plus all pairs: (22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo) = 18%
There are:
- 12 AX hands (A2-AK)
- 11 KX hands
- 10 QX hands
- 9 JX hands
- 8 TX hands
- 7 9X hands
- 6 8X hands
- 5 7X hands
- 4 6X hands
- 3 5X hands
- 2 4X hands
- 1 3X hand
Hand range formula:
(A2-AK = 13-2+1 = 12 hands)
Q6-QT = 10-6+1 = 5 hands
Remember that A = 14, K = 13, Q = 12, J = 11, T = 10...
Therefore,
all suited aces = 12 * 0.3 = 3.6%
all suited kings = 11 * 0.3 = 3.3%
---
Homework:
Use pt4 to filter different 3bet ranges and see what hands show up most often.
what kind of hands show up in a 10% preflop 3betters range?
what kind of hands show up in a 13% preflop 3betters range?
Add 4bet to your your stat, and can we somehow add 3bet fold? Add checkraise stat.
Compare your stats to 62p and TNP. Especially f3b.
Look at the ‘in a 3bet pot’ stat.
Ranges with the same percentages don't necessarily contain the same hands. For example, a 10% preflop 3bet range is not going to be the same as a preflop open raising range.
Therefore, memorizing the models seems kind of useless. However, I do believe it would be beneficial to practice visualizing ranges so I could do it in real time. A little guide for myself and possibly others:
- An offsuit hand (eg. AKo) = 0.9% (12 combos)
- A suited hand (eg. AKs) = 0.3% (4 combos)
- A pocket pair hand (eg. 55) = 0.45% (6 combos)
REMEMBER: 4-6-12 for combos. 0.3, 0.45, 0.9 percentages.
---
For easy memorization, these are some common ranges and percentages:
All Pocket pairs: (22+) = 6%
Broadway aka 5x5 Square: (TT+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo) = 14%
Broadway plus all pairs: (22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo) = 18%
There are:
- 12 AX hands (A2-AK)
- 11 KX hands
- 10 QX hands
- 9 JX hands
- 8 TX hands
- 7 9X hands
- 6 8X hands
- 5 7X hands
- 4 6X hands
- 3 5X hands
- 2 4X hands
- 1 3X hand
Hand range formula:
(A2-AK = 13-2+1 = 12 hands)
Q6-QT = 10-6+1 = 5 hands
Remember that A = 14, K = 13, Q = 12, J = 11, T = 10...
Therefore,
all suited aces = 12 * 0.3 = 3.6%
all suited kings = 11 * 0.3 = 3.3%
---
Homework:
Use pt4 to filter different 3bet ranges and see what hands show up most often.
what kind of hands show up in a 10% preflop 3betters range?
what kind of hands show up in a 13% preflop 3betters range?
Add 4bet to your your stat, and can we somehow add 3bet fold? Add checkraise stat.
Compare your stats to 62p and TNP. Especially f3b.
Look at the ‘in a 3bet pot’ stat.
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