http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6875225
Monday, August 3, 2015
HAND REVIEW: Weird spot with 99
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874977
So I don't remember anything about this hand, and I don't feel like looking through my DB for it again - I don't know the icm details, so this is purely a chipev calculation. No reads on anyone.
- utg raises 2x with 58bb.
- utg+1 3b shoves for 12bb.
Fold, Fold
We have 99 in the hijack, we have 64bb.
--------------
So this is a pretty nasty spot first of all. I think we made a mistake here. If utg wasn't involved and we were just calling utg+1's 12bb shove, I'd have no problem with this play. But if we give utg an 8% range (AJs+, AJo+, 66+) which I think is pretty reasonable, and utg+1 a 10% range (A8s+, ATo+, 55+, KQs), (these are default ranges from icmizer btw), then this is a losing play - we should be calling with TT+, AKs+.
Even if we widen the ranges to 9.5% for utg and 11% for utg+1, it is still a losing play according to icmizer.
---------------
Why is it a bad play?
- because vs. a narrow utg open, we aren't doing so well. We are flipping against ATs+, and AQo+, and we're dominated by any of his pocket pairs except for maybe 88.
- because he can still deny us the opportunity to realize our equity. I imagine we are folding if he shoves preflop, and he can certainly do this with his AXs.
----------------
A friend also pointed out that I can cbet less (30% of pot) here because of the small effective stacks behind, and fold to a shove. I haven't considered this option but it seems good. The second reason is because it is a protected pot (when one player is already all in). So as my friend put it, if he's bluffing with ace high, he probably won't even win the sidepot vs the shortie, so denying me my equity doesn't do much. "it makes it much less interesting to bluff you out of the pot, so you can make it really small"
So I don't remember anything about this hand, and I don't feel like looking through my DB for it again - I don't know the icm details, so this is purely a chipev calculation. No reads on anyone.
- utg raises 2x with 58bb.
- utg+1 3b shoves for 12bb.
Fold, Fold
We have 99 in the hijack, we have 64bb.
--------------
So this is a pretty nasty spot first of all. I think we made a mistake here. If utg wasn't involved and we were just calling utg+1's 12bb shove, I'd have no problem with this play. But if we give utg an 8% range (AJs+, AJo+, 66+) which I think is pretty reasonable, and utg+1 a 10% range (A8s+, ATo+, 55+, KQs), (these are default ranges from icmizer btw), then this is a losing play - we should be calling with TT+, AKs+.
Even if we widen the ranges to 9.5% for utg and 11% for utg+1, it is still a losing play according to icmizer.
---------------
Why is it a bad play?
- because vs. a narrow utg open, we aren't doing so well. We are flipping against ATs+, and AQo+, and we're dominated by any of his pocket pairs except for maybe 88.
- because he can still deny us the opportunity to realize our equity. I imagine we are folding if he shoves preflop, and he can certainly do this with his AXs.
----------------
A friend also pointed out that I can cbet less (30% of pot) here because of the small effective stacks behind, and fold to a shove. I haven't considered this option but it seems good. The second reason is because it is a protected pot (when one player is already all in). So as my friend put it, if he's bluffing with ace high, he probably won't even win the sidepot vs the shortie, so denying me my equity doesn't do much. "it makes it much less interesting to bluff you out of the pot, so you can make it really small"
HAND REVIEW: A9s utg raise w/ 11bb
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874951
So a recent leak of mine is trying to min-raise with sub-20bb stacks. It's arguable that it isn't a problem when you're 15-20bb deep, but I'm pretty sure it's just best to shove here. I don't have a big enough stack to play post flop effectively and I'm letting in worse hands to see the flop. Also I don't think this is a fold, we have 11bb and the blinds are coming in 1 hand. Icmizer says this is a shove fwiw.
It's pretty devastating to be min-raising A9s here, and it certainly cost us our tournament life here. If we get raised, do we fold? That would be pretty awful. If we get called, we're committed on the flop anyway.
So a recent leak of mine is trying to min-raise with sub-20bb stacks. It's arguable that it isn't a problem when you're 15-20bb deep, but I'm pretty sure it's just best to shove here. I don't have a big enough stack to play post flop effectively and I'm letting in worse hands to see the flop. Also I don't think this is a fold, we have 11bb and the blinds are coming in 1 hand. Icmizer says this is a shove fwiw.
It's pretty devastating to be min-raising A9s here, and it certainly cost us our tournament life here. If we get raised, do we fold? That would be pretty awful. If we get called, we're committed on the flop anyway.
Hand review: T6o in the CO
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6874856
so villain is 16/11/4, defending vs 2bets in the bb 33% (4/12).
1) I'm not crazy about opening this wide in the CO.
2) Obviously there isn't supposed to be many 4's in his defending range. We need him to be shoving flush draws and possibly some pocket pairs (66-99) for our play to work. I don't think he's less likely to shove flush draws because of the paired board, and I highly doubt that somebody playing 16/11/4 is going to shove the flop with second pair (pocket pairs).
If he's not shoving flush draws and pocket pairs, he is only really shoving better 10s, and whatever 4s he defends.
Terribly played :)
so villain is 16/11/4, defending vs 2bets in the bb 33% (4/12).
1) I'm not crazy about opening this wide in the CO.
2) Obviously there isn't supposed to be many 4's in his defending range. We need him to be shoving flush draws and possibly some pocket pairs (66-99) for our play to work. I don't think he's less likely to shove flush draws because of the paired board, and I highly doubt that somebody playing 16/11/4 is going to shove the flop with second pair (pocket pairs).
If he's not shoving flush draws and pocket pairs, he is only really shoving better 10s, and whatever 4s he defends.
Terribly played :)
Saturday, August 1, 2015
**** ADD 3B NOTE TO PT4 ****
NP (1450) [18/17/8]
VP: 18
R1: 25
3B: 8
CB: 77
CBT: 57
FCB: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
F3B: 75
FSTL: 65
CL2: 4
LI: 0
LF:-
D: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
XX(11K) [16/11/4]
VP:16
R1:18
3B: 4
CB:47
CBT: 33
FCB: 56
F3B: 75
FSTL: 83
CL2: 9
LI: 3
LF: 61
D: 4
- DOES R1 INCLUDE LIMPERS BEFORE?
CAC (3.1K) [20/17/7]
VP: 20
R1: 26
3B: 7
CB: 61
CBT: 49
FCB: 61
F3B: 76
FSTL: 73
CL2:7
LI:2
LF:80
D: 4
* ADD 4B TO HUD
OM
VP:24
R1: 25
3B: 9
CB: 67
CBT: 46
FCB:49
F3B:72
FSTL: 54
CL2: 15
LI: 4
LF: 37
D: 28
NP (1450) [18/17/8]
VP: 18
R1: 25
3B: 8
CB: 77
CBT: 57
FCB: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
F3B: 75
FSTL: 65
CL2: 4
LI: 0
LF:-
D: 10 (BAD SAMPLE)
XX(11K) [16/11/4]
VP:16
R1:18
3B: 4
CB:47
CBT: 33
FCB: 56
F3B: 75
FSTL: 83
CL2: 9
LI: 3
LF: 61
D: 4
- DOES R1 INCLUDE LIMPERS BEFORE?
CAC (3.1K) [20/17/7]
VP: 20
R1: 26
3B: 7
CB: 61
CBT: 49
FCB: 61
F3B: 76
FSTL: 73
CL2:7
LI:2
LF:80
D: 4
* ADD 4B TO HUD
OM
VP:24
R1: 25
3B: 9
CB: 67
CBT: 46
FCB:49
F3B:72
FSTL: 54
CL2: 15
LI: 4
LF: 37
D: 28
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Breaking down a person's range
Thought this might be a neat little exercise after talking with a friend. I think it would be good to break down a person's range for practice because we'll be able to range other players better in the future. Also it'll show how all the stats are connected, maybe we'll be able to estimate some stats based on others.
We're going to be looking at vpip, pfr, 3bet, fold to 3bet, call pf 2bet and 4bet:
player3: (3079 hands)
VPIP: 24.23
PFR: 17.11
3BET: 8.85
FOLD TO 3BET: 72.40
CALL PF 2BET: 15.06
4BET: 10.45
-----
So obviously this player has a pretty wide gap between vpip and pfr. What does it consist of?
We have 3079 hands on him.
- he voluntarily put money in the pot 736/3079 = 24%
- he raised first in 360/3079 = 12%
-
- he 3bet 93/1051 = 9% (1051 is his 3bet opportunities)
VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+
vpip = 0.53(0.13) + 0.48(5.91) + 0.48(24.75) + 0.39(15.29) + 0.06(16.76) + 0.02(66)
= 0.0689 + 2.8368 + 11.88 + 5.96 + 1.00 + 1.32
= ~23
-----
lets try it for another player:
VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+
= 4.10 + 15.69 + 24.67 + 8.85 + 10.45 + 0
DO THIS TOMORROW
------------
thoughts:
So I think using vpip/pfr/3bet as stats is bad. First of all, vpip is way too general. PFR is stupid because it includes raise first in, 3bet, 4bet, etc., and vpip obviously includes all of those as well.
We should be using:
- raise first in
- 3bet
- call any preflop 2b?
- call any pfr? (im thinking this one is bad too because its based on pfr)
- find a stat to show how often people are calling raises
- vpip pfr gap doesn't mean as much as it used to because of wider defending
We're going to be looking at vpip, pfr, 3bet, fold to 3bet, call pf 2bet and 4bet:
player3: (3079 hands)
VPIP: 24.23
PFR: 17.11
3BET: 8.85
FOLD TO 3BET: 72.40
CALL PF 2BET: 15.06
4BET: 10.45
-----
So obviously this player has a pretty wide gap between vpip and pfr. What does it consist of?
We have 3079 hands on him.
- he voluntarily put money in the pot 736/3079 = 24%
- he raised first in 360/3079 = 12%
-
- he 3bet 93/1051 = 9% (1051 is his 3bet opportunities)
VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+
vpip = 0.53(0.13) + 0.48(5.91) + 0.48(24.75) + 0.39(15.29) + 0.06(16.76) + 0.02(66)
= 0.0689 + 2.8368 + 11.88 + 5.96 + 1.00 + 1.32
= ~23
-----
lets try it for another player:
VPIP = preflop limp + any preflop call + raise first in weighted + 3bet weighted + 4bet weighted + 5bet weighted+
= 4.10 + 15.69 + 24.67 + 8.85 + 10.45 + 0
DO THIS TOMORROW
------------
thoughts:
So I think using vpip/pfr/3bet as stats is bad. First of all, vpip is way too general. PFR is stupid because it includes raise first in, 3bet, 4bet, etc., and vpip obviously includes all of those as well.
We should be using:
- raise first in
- 3bet
- call any preflop 2b?
- call any pfr? (im thinking this one is bad too because its based on pfr)
- find a stat to show how often people are calling raises
- vpip pfr gap doesn't mean as much as it used to because of wider defending
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