HRC Hand review

So I was watching a Run It Once video (clutch hero) and was surprised about a hand:

Basically we have 9bb in the BB with TJo and Clutch Hero says he'd call an open shove with TJo in this spot. So I decided to run it through HRC:

The stacks are as follows:
UTG1 9.5BB
UTG2 10BB
MP1 55BB
MP2 29BB
HIJ 49BB
CO 16BB
BTN 13BB
SB 72BB
BB 9BB

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HRC says SB should be shoving 75% of hands which is everything pretty much down to 87o, t6o+, j4o+, q2o+, k2o+, a2o+, almost every suited except 62s-82s and 42s, 32s.

And we should be calling with 52% of hands:
22+, Kx+, Q2s+, Q5o+, J5s+, J7o+, T8o+, 97s

So he was right. Turns out I'm not calling enough in this spot

Hand Review: KK Postflop

[b][3/436][/b]
##########################################
PokerStars Game 139895652701 / Tournament
Table 1303714055 26 -
Blinds : [b][color=darkred]10/20[/color][/b]
##########################################

9 players
[b][SB] [/b]jcmspoker (5970)
[b][BB] [/b]kartrid (6030)
[1] BaaadNews (3150)
[2] [b]Fabaz (9000) [/b]
[3] xPoisonUAx (2942)
[4] Todd12345 (6091)
[5] KAMSHULER (3086)
[6] dorschcharli (8902)
[b][But] [/b]Brownwingsx3 (9046)

Fabaz K:diamond: K:club: [b]Initial Pot: 30
[/b]
BaaadNews calls 20
Fabaz raises to 100
[i]xPoisonUAx folds[/i]
[i]Todd12345 folds[/i]
[i]KAMSHULER folds[/i]
dorschcharli calls 100
Brownwingsx3 calls 100
[i]jcmspoker folds[/i]
[i]kartrid folds[/i]
BaaadNews calls 80
### FLOP ### 3:diamond: J:spade: 7:heart: [b]Pot: 430[/b]
BaaadNews checks
Fabaz bets 260
[i]dorschcharli folds[/i]
Brownwingsx3 calls 260
BaaadNews calls 260
### TURN ### 2:diamond: [b]Pot: 1210[/b]
BaaadNews checks
Fabaz bets 740
Brownwingsx3 calls 740
BaaadNews raises to 1560
Fabaz raises to 2380
[i]Brownwingsx3 folds[/i]
BaaadNews is All in
Fabaz calls 410
### RIVER ### 3:club: [b]Pot: 7530[/b]
BaaadNews shows 7:diamond: 7:spade:
Fabaz shows K:diamond: K:club:
[color=violet][b]BaaadNews[/b][/color] wins 7530 from the main pot with A Full House, sevens full of treys
[color=violet][b]BaaadNews[/b][/color] wins 7530 from the main pot with A Full House, sevens full of treys

----

Sorry for the formatting, it's from Universal Hand Replayer. So I actually think this is a fold on the turn. There just isn't a single hand we can beat. BaaadNews checkraised a blank 2 into two people who are at least somewhat committed to the pot, he is definitely not doing this with AJ (not that he'd play AJ like this anyway). He wouldn't play QQ like this either.

Update

Haven't updated the blog in a while, but I've been putting in volume and studying a lot. Currently I'm trying to look for changes and trends in player pools month by month. Things I want to look at:

vpip, pfr, 3b, limp, limp fold, cbet f, cbet t, fold to cbet, fold to cbet 3way pot, cbet flop success, fold to 3bet, wtsd.

Really it would be useful to look at all meaningful stats and adjust accordingly.


More to come.

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6909319

Points to this hand:
- Ace on the river obviously makes it less likely that he has an ace in his hand.

Points I neglected:
- Although the ace on the river does reduce the chance of him having an ace, the fact that I have the Kd reduces the chance that he's on a draw.

Where to Improve:
 - check back the flop, as well as with AK:
     - if he raises us and we get it all-in on the flop, we're not doing so great against his range. His  range would be strong combo draws, two pairs, sets and QJ for the straight.
     - we aren't afraid of any turn cards.

---
So I decided to go over this hand in flopzilla and illustrate the points above:

let's give him a range of 88+, AQo+, KQo, AJs+, KQs (5.18%)

Obviously he's probably usually 4betting AA, KK and probably QQ preflop, but let's just try this range for now.

Against that range, on a Ah Jd Td flop:
- 61% equity for range
- 38% equity for hand


1) Obviously we don't want to get it all in on the flop given that we are 38% against his range.

---
With flopzilla, we can also see which turn cards improve the range, and which improve our hand:
- A/K are basically a tie, two kings are obviously blocked, and presumably some aces because of his range. A Queen is ~70% for our range. Jacks and tens are ~60% for his range. 9s and 8s are especially good for his range (73%). 7s all the way down to 2s around 67% for his range. Basically the takeaway is that most cards don't change the equity much other than 8s and 9s which are good for his range (if we include 88/99 in his preflop raise/call range, and Queens which are good for my hand.

2) Obviously there aren't many turn cards we are afraid of. The vast majority of turn cards don't change the equity drastically from the flop to the turn.


3) He doesn't have many draws in his range because we have the Kd. (Kinda)
- He'll actually have gutshots 44% of the time. (QQ, KK, AQ, AK)
- But if we change our card from the Kd to the Ks, he has flushdraws 5% of the time compared to 1.8%.

Update

I haven't posted an update in a while since I've been grinding. The grind has been pretty tough but I'm not completely satisfied with my play either. Luckily I've got a tonne of hand reviews to do and a lot of learning material.

Some concepts I've yet to implement:

- not 3betting with the nuts always. As a few of my friends told me, I should flat KK/AA in some spots if I have shoving stacks behind me left to act.

- I still cbet way too much. Upcoming hand review will exemplify this.

watch how to study pt 4

HAND REVIEW: QKs in SB vs. a UTG raise [40bb eff.]

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/6879606